New Microsoft CEO this year?

Sam Altman 4%

Brad Smith 4%

Scott Guthrie 4%

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Before 2026

% Chance

Sam Altman

Brad Smith

Scott Guthrie

Rules summary for

Sam Altman

If Sam Altman is announced as the next permanent CEO of Microsoft by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Microsoft.

Timeline and payout

About

Satya Nadella is the CEO of Microsoft. He assumed the role in February 2014, succeeding Steve Ballmer. Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft experienced a significant transformation, focusing on cloud computing and AI. Nadella played a crucial role in the company's success, emphasizing innovation, collaboration, and a growth mindset. As he reaches a 10 year tenure, is it time to pass the baton?