The President's 538 lowest approval rating by Dec 31, 2024?
3
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.
5
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
%
▼ 00
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.
7
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By Dec 31, 2024 (+0)
$430,772vol
Below 38%
Yes
Below 37%
Yes
Below 36%
No
3 more markets
Rules summary for
Below 38%
If, according to FiveThirtyEight, the President's minimum approval rating is below 38 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FiveThirtyEight.
PLEASE NOTE: the values considered are only the values for each day as checked at 10:00 AM ET after that day has finished. Intra-day values are not considered. For example, if for a given day the 538 Approval rating for the President hits 45.0% and ten minutes later falls back to 44.6% and stays at 44.6% through the end of the day, then the 45.0% will not be considered for purposes of calculating the minimum or maximum.
Changes following the first 10:00 AM ET after a given date are not included in consideration. For example, if a methodology change makes it so that the approval rating two weeks prior to yesterday fell below or above a given threshold, it would not push markets with that threshold to YES. Only the value for the date at the first 10:00 AM ET after the date is considered. Timeline and payout
About
Will Biden's 538 approval rating reach a new low in 2024? The president's approval rating has been hovering near record lows, and experts are divided on whether it can rebound. 538 calculates its approval rating by averaging polls from a variety of sources, weighted by their accuracy and methodology.
