After months of speculation, the 2024 Oscars are finally in the books. And while Oppenheimer was clearly the big winner, Kalshi traders had some big wins of their own. In fact, one trader made more than $15,000 on their Oscar trades.

Oscar Recap: What We Got Right

On the whole, Kalshi's aggregate trader forecast had a respectable showing. Out of the 14 Oscar markets related to award categories, our users accurately predicted 10 winners*.

• Best Picture - Oppenheimer (95%)
• Best Director - Christopher Nolan (98%)
• Best Actor - Cillian Murphy (93%)
• Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph (97%)
• Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr. (96%)
• Best Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction (61%)
• Best Original Screenplay - Anatomy of a Fall (72%)
• Best Visual Effects - Godzilla Minus One (71%)
• Best Production Design - Poor Things (70%)
• Best Original Song - What Was I Made For? (Barbie) (91%)

What We Got Wrong

And here's a look at the four markets our traders missed.

• Best Lead Actress
  • Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon (67%)
  • Emma Stone from Poor Things (35%)
• Best Animated Feature
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (71%)
  • The Boy and the Heron (31%)
• Best Sound
  • Oppenheimer (77%)
  • The Zone of Interest (26%)
• Best Costume Design
  • Barbie (59%)
  • Poor Things (48%)

Traders were also slightly off the mark in our two 'Number of Oscars Won' markets, but not by much.

'Number of Oscars Oppenheimer wins?' = 8 awards (Final total = 7)

'Number of Oscars Barbie wins?' = 1.8 awards (Final Total = 1)

*Kalshi market percentages were compiled on Sunday, March 10th at 11:14 AM ET.

Our 2025 Oscar Markets Are Already Here

Our 2024 Oscar Markets are in the books, but our 2025 Oscar markets are just getting started. Take a look at the list below, and get in on the ground floor.

• 2025 Oscar nominations for Best Picture?
• 2025 Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor?
• Number of Oscars Dune: Part Two wins next year?
• 2025 Oscar nominations for Best Actor

New 'Rotten Tomatoes' Markets

We've also included our new Rotten Tomatoes markets, which reward you for correctly predicting the popular review site's aggregate critic scores, as well as some 2024 movie release/production markets, where traders can accurately predict official production announcements and delays.

• Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Rotten Tomatoes score?
• Deadpool 3 Rotten Tomatoes score?
• Joker: Folie à Deux Rotten Tomatoes score?
• Borderlands Rotten Tomatoes score?
• Gladiator 2 Rotten Tomatoes score?
• Dune Messiah movie announced before April?
• New Avengers movie delayed?

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.