Today it was announced that President Biden will commute the sentences of nearly 1,500 convicts who were released from prison and placed in home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It’s the largest single-day act of clemency for any president in modern U.S. history. It's also an act of mercy that will be remembered as a defining moment of Biden’s presidency.

Just kidding. Most people will only remember this pardon:

Look, I’m not an expert on the matter, but if I was “The Big Guy” in this situation, I’d probably lead with the clemency for non-violent offenders and hold off on the crack-head son pardon until the very end. But I digress.

What other pardons does Biden have in store before he leaves office?

Here's a look at some of the bigger names on the list, a breakdown of their pros and cons, and their current odds of being pardoned.

^{This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.}

Sam Bankman-Fried (a.k.a. "SBF")

Crime: Convicted of multiple fraud and conspiracy charges related to the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange, FTX.

Reasons for a pardon:

• Bankman-Fried gave the 2020 Biden campaign $5.2 million, making him the second largest donor behind former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
• Some people contend that Bankman-Fried's 25-year sentence was too harsh. And by “some people,” I mean his parents.

Reasons against:

• Due to the collapse of FTX, Bankman-Fried has very little public support for his release.
• Joe Biden doesn’t remember him or his donations.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 5%.

Bob Menendez (a.k.a. "Gold Bar Bob" )

Crime: Accepting bribes, including gold bars, cash, and luxury gifts, in exchange for using his political influence to benefit the governments of Egypt and Qatar.

Reasons for a pardon:

• Menendez’s long tenure in the Senate included significant contributions to Democratic legislative efforts.
• Menendez’s Senate resignation, which paved the way for Rep. Andy Kim to win his seat and solidify Democratic control, may have been part of a pardon deal.

Reasons against:

• They literally caught the guy taking gold bars.
• His last name isn’t Biden.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 10%.

Eric Adams (a.k.a. Turkish Delight)

Crime: Allegedly accepting luxury travel gifts in exchange for leveraging his influence to benefit Turkish interests, including the approval of the Turkish consulate in Manhattan.

Reasons for a pardon:

• A pardon could help the Democratic Party avoid further political fallout during contentious local elections.
• Supporters wonder why Eric Adams, the Mayor of old New York (formerly New Amsterdam) should get the works, since the consulate is nobody's business but the Turks.

Reasons against:

• Pardoning Adams could set a dangerous precedent for overlooking corruption involving foreign governments.
• Adams claims he is being targeted due to his criticism of Biden’s immigration policies. If true, it doesn’t bode well for a pardon. And if false, it doesn’t bode well for a pardon.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 1%.

Anthony Weiner - (a.k.a. "Carlos Danger")

Crime: Illicit online contact with a minor, resulting in a 21-month federal prison sentence.

Reasons for a pardon:

• Weiner has a long history of public service, including a decade in Congress.
• He has attended rehab for sex addiction in an attempt to reform.
• Given that his name is Weiner, he never had a chance to turn out normal.

Reasons against:

• He sent d*ck pics to a 15-year-old, which in case you haven’t noticed, is not a very popular crime. In fact, disregard all the “reasons for a pardon” listed above. I was just filling space because I get paid by the word.
• Many Democrats blame Weiner’s scandal for helping to derail Hillary Clinton’s campaign in late 2016.
• As the video below shows, back when Joe Biden was lucid, he was “not a fan” of Weiner…

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 5%.

Preemptive Pardons

Until now, we’ve been dealing with pardons for people who have either been indicted or convicted of a crime. But the following people are supposedly being considered for preemptive pardons.

Obviously, the main reason against a preemptive pardon is that it makes the person involved look guilty, even if they are not. So going forward, I’ll only list the reasons Biden is considering it.

Liz Cheney (a.k.a. "War Hawk Tuah)

Most Americans agree that Cheney should be in jail. But people seem to disagree on which Cheney, and for what crime.

Donald Trump recently claimed that Liz Cheney should be in jail due to her involvement with the January 6th Committee.

However, Trump adviser Jason Miller later walked back the comments, saying they were taken out of context.

The direct quote was, “Honestly, they should go to jail,” so maybe the “context” is that the interview took place in Opposite Land.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 34%.

Anthony Fauci - (a.k.a. "Ouchie Fauci")

Many prominent Republicans, including Elon Musk, have called for Fauci’s prosecution. But what would he actually be charged with?

Ted Cruz, specifically, claims that Fauci has “flat-out lied to Congress” in regard to US funding for "gain of function" virus research in China. Fauci denies Cruz’s allegations, but that is one route they could go.

Also, according to Oakley-wearing YouTubers filming political videos from their trucks, Fauci is personally responsible for 17 million COVID vaccine deaths. So I guess a murder charge is another possibility. But that might be a bit harder to prove.

Either way, is the risk of a prosecution really high enough for Biden to make preemptive pardon?

Considering Trump’s current pick to head the FBI once promoted a line of health supplements designed to ‘reverse’ the COVID-19 vaccine, maybe.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 38%.

Jim Biden - (a.k.a. "The Big Guy's Little Bro")

It’s difficult to write about preemptive pardons because it's not always clear a crime has been committed.

But with Jim Biden, it's not quite as hard.

The President’s brother received $600,000 in questionable interest-free loans from a shady medical company called Americore. The company, which has since collapsed, was accused of fraudulent Medicare billing.

He partially repaid the cash after allegations of fraudulent transfers surfaced. But his involvement with the company is a pretty big red flag.

Is there enough evidence to actually convict him of a crime?

I don’t know.

But I do know that if the Trump administration is really looking for scalps, Jim Biden is probably where they'll start.

Trader consensus: Traders price the chance of a pardon at 50%.

Click here to trade on our full list of potential Biden pardons.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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