Please note: FBI Director is not a cabinet-level position, and Kash Patel will not count toward markets involving a cabinet nominee withdrawing. We apologize for the error.

Last month, due to some minor issues, Matt Gaetz dropped his bid to become Donald Trump’s attorney general.

What was learned from this debacle?

I personally learned that very few words rhyme with statutory.

But we all learned that despite being under Republican control, Mitch McConnell's John Thune’s Senate may not act as a rubber stamp for Trump’s more controversial cabinet picks.

That’s bad news for Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, who is now clearly in the crosshairs.

^{This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.}

Kalshi traders currently think there’s an 86% chance that another Trump cabinet nominee will drop before Election Day. And Hegseth is the clear frontrunner.

At one point, his chances of being confirmed were as high as 87%.

But now, thanks to an avalanche of bad press, including an old email from his own mother accusing him of abusing women, Hegseth's odds have dipped as low as 8% (but have since rebounded to 24%).

Rising from the ashes of Hegseth’s burnout, like an awkward, pudding-loving phoenix, is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Like Hegseth, DeSantis does have a military background, which is showcased in this impressively awful campaign ad.

But unlike Hegseth, who made a career out of frightening Fox News Boomers before they fall asleep, "Top Gov" has actual experience running the State of Florida. And experience running a large bureaucracy is probably something you want from the person in charge of running the military.

Yes, DeSantis angered many in Trump’s orbit during his 2024 primary challenge. But Marco Rubio once insinuated that Trump has a small wang, and now he's set to be Trump's Secretary of State.

As for Hegseth, he’s not going down without a fight, and has launched a full-court press to save his faltering nomination.

But when your mom has to go on Fox & Friends and call her own email “misinformation,” and your new selling point is that you'll quit drinking if you get the job, it’s not looking good.

Will at least 3 of Trump's Cabinet nominees fail?

Hegseth’s nomination may be on life support, but it’s not dead yet.

That said, Kalshi traders are already speculating about a third nominee getting the axe. Odds of at least three cabinet picks failing are currently above 70%.

Assuming Hegseth drops, who will be number three?

Seemingly Safe Picks

The majority of Trump's cabinet picks are non-controversial and have, for now, managed to avoid scandals.

Yeah, one of them accused him of having a small penis, and another one shot a dog she didn't like. But the bar has been lowered to the point where credible sexual assault allegations only get you thrown on the “maybe pile.” So these nominees should be a cake walk.

• 🪖 Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Doug Collins - 92%
• 💰 Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bessent - 93%
• 🚦 Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy - 91%
• 🌍 Secretary of State: Marco Rubio - 95%
• 👷 Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer - 89%
• 🌲 Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum - 95%
• 🦅 Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem - 91%
• ⚡ Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright - 92%
• 🎓 Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon - 86%
• 🏠 Secretary of HUD: Scott Turner - 89%
• 📈 Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick - 93%
• 🌱 Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins - 89%
• ⚖️ Attorney General: Pam Bondi - 92%

That leaves us with RFK Jr., Kash Patel, and Tulsi Gabbard.

Secretary of Health and Human Services: RFK Jr. - 67%

Like Gaetz and Hegseth, RFK Jr. is no stranger to allegations of sexual misconduct. But his alleged improprieties are decades old… except for the stuff from the past year, I guess.

Also, his last name is Kennedy, so that might make him somewhat immune.

If he does make it to a Senate hearing, he’s sure to be grilled on a number of controversial issues from his past, including comments about Jews being immune from COVID, and that unpleasantness with the unvaccinated kids in American Samoa.

But Bernie Sanders seems to be coming around to him. And the guy has already survived a brain worm infestation, so maybe he’ll also survive a Senate hearing.

Traders put his odds at 61%.

FBI Director: Kash Patel - 66%

As noted above, FBI Director is not a cabinet-level position, and Kash Patel will not count toward markets involving a cabinet nominee withdrawing. We apologize for the error.

Even among Republicans, Kash Patel is a highly controversial pick to lead the FBI. In fact, former Trump Attorney General Bob Barr previously described him as someone who “would never be able to command the respect necessary to run the day-to-day operations of the bureau.”

To be fair, Barr made those comments before Patel wrote this kick-ass MAGA children’s book about a wizard named “Kash” who helps “King Donald” fight the evil forces of “Hillary Queenton,” “Sleepy Joe,” and “Comma-la-la-la.” It's all very normal and sane.

And despite all of his detractors, there aren't any sexual misconduct allegations against him, which gives him an edge.

Kalshi traders currently give him a 66% chance to be confirmed.

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard - 50%

Like Patel, critics point to Tulsi Gabbard’s lack of intelligence experience as a major concern. They also take issue with her ties to an alleged cult, and her seemingly sympathetic comments toward Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad.

But as her supporters point out, Deep State gonna Deep State.

Unfortunately for Gabbard, she hasn’t written a cool pro-Trump children’s book like Patel, nor is she blessed with his very sane, trustworthy gaze. Perhaps that explains why her odds of being nominated are only 50%.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}