Will at least 3 of Trump's Cabinet nominees fail?

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Before 2026

$156,896vol

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If at least 3 of Trump's Cabinet nominees fail because they are withdrawn or fail Senate votes, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate and The New York Times.

For purposes of this Contract, “fail” means that the individuals either withdraw from consideration, have their nomination withdrawn, or are not confirmed after a vote by the United States Senate with no further votes planned. All three individuals do not need to fail in the same manner to satisfy the Payout Criterion. For purposes of this Contract, “Cabinet-level positions” includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as well the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. For purposes of this Contract, a nomination occurs as soon as the President or President-elect announces their intent to nominate someone for a position. Multiple nominations for a single position are included; for example, if the President nominates three different persons for Attorney General and they all fail, that will be included within the Payout Criterion. One nomination has already failed, that of former Congressman Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. This failure will count as one of the three necessary to satisfy the Payout Criterion.

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