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Economics

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Economics

Fed decision in March?

Fed decision in March?
Fed maintains rate1.07x
Cut 25bps13.4x
$10,087,789 vol5 markets

How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?

How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
At least 1 billion31.2x
At least 1 trillion93.5x
$10,843,609 vol9 markets

How much will core PCE increase in April?

How much will core PCE increase in April?
Above 0.2%1.93x
Above 0.3%1.93x
$164,670 vol5 markets

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 3.0%1.62x
Above 3.5%2.52x
$2,872,670 vol16 markets

GDP growth in 2025?

GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.51.05x
2.6 to 3.023.4x
$2,417,445 vol12 markets

US gas prices this week

US gas prices this week
Above $2.9292.05x
Above $2.9594.98x
$85,906 vol5 markets

Gas prices in the US this month?

Gas prices in the US this month?
Above 2.952.52x
Above 3.004.51x
$284,830 vol8 markets

Fed funds rate after March meeting?

Fed funds rate after March meeting?
Above 3.50%1.06x
Above 3.25%1.02x
$217,807 vol11 markets

Jobs numbers this month?

Jobs numbers this month?
Above 60,0001.86x
Above 70,0002.24x
$64,445 vol13 markets

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, R-Senate
D-House, R-Senate2.05x
D-House, D-Senate
D-House, D-Senate2.46x
$893,796 vol4 markets

Texas Senate matchup?

Texas Senate matchup?
Talarico vs. Paxton1.44x
Crockett vs. Paxton4.31x
$138,787 vol6 markets

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb 14, 2026

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb 14, 2026
At least 2250001.83x
At least 2300002.98x
$15,309 vol10 markets

Inflation in February? (CPI YoY)

Inflation in February? (CPI YoY)
Above 2.4%2.19x
Above 2.3%1.22x
$49,602 vol10 markets

CPI in February?

CPI in February?
Above 0.2%1.79x
Above 0.3%6.74x
$26,043 vol6 markets

When will the next US recession start?

When will the next US recession start?
Q1 202610.4x
Q4 202513.4x
$405,061 vol6 markets

Recession this year?

Recession this year?
Yes4.13x
No1.25x
$377,779 vol1 market

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Yes3.08x
No1.40x
$124,329 vol1 market

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 2 cuts3.80x
Exactly 3 cuts3.80x
$1,145,045 vol21 markets

US Nominal GDP in 2026

US Nominal GDP in 2026
Above $30.2 trillion1.76x
Above $30.8 trillion1.97x
$5,827 vol21 markets

Blue tsunami this year?

Blue tsunami this year?
Yes2.66x
No1.48x
$71,896 vol1 market

How much will the government increase spending in 2025?

How much will the government increase spending in 2025?
At least $500 billion5.25x
At least $1 trillion23.4x
$581,559 vol2 markets

Unemployment in February

Unemployment in February
Above 4.3%1.97x
Above 4.2%1.22x
$25,484 vol10 markets

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 5%2.59x
Above 6%4.73x
$268,110 vol10 markets

France Nominal GDP

France Nominal GDP
Above $3.4 trillion2.09x
Above $3.3 trillion1.60x
$4,225 vol14 markets