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Economics

Global Central Banks

US FEDSep 16

Fed decision in September?

Hike 25bps

Fed maintains rate

$65,306,221 vol3 more

Fed decision in September?

MarketPays outOdds

Hike 25bps

1.25x

Fed maintains rate

4.31x

Hike >25bps

46.8x

Cut 25bps

93.5x

$65,306,221 vol1 more

1 of 3

Fed funds rate after September meeting?

Above 3.75%

1.23x

Above 4.00%

46.8x

$2,080,758 vol11 markets

US headline CPI inflation in December 2027

Above 3.0%

1.50x

Above 2.5%

1.29x

$10,284 vol13 markets

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027

1.13x

Before July 2027

1.09x

$6,512,755 vol3 markets

September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core

Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above

2.52x

Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%

2.89x

$33,508 vol12 markets

Recession this year?

Yes

15.6x

No

1.05x

$3,458,684 vol1 market

Urban Outfitters Credit Card Spend in September

Above 110

1.36x

Above 103

1.16x

$20,610 vol9 markets

West Virginia total coal production this year

Above 78 million short tons

1.57x

Above 80 million short tons

2.73x

$61,910 vol7 markets

How high will US gas prices get this year?

Above $4.80

2.09x

Above $5.00

2.59x

$1,488,286 vol13 markets

EV commodity prices today

Above 1202.00

1.65x

Above 1212.00

4.73x

$12,152 vol15 markets

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

0

3.18x

1

3.52x

$196,663 vol6 markets

Texas crude oil production this year

Above 5.8 million barrels/day

2.24x

Above 5.9 million barrels/day

7.85x

$29,827 vol4 markets

South Dakota corn yield this year

Above 145 bu/acre

1.97x

Above 150 bu/acre

4.73x

$102,297 vol8 markets

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Above 710,000

3.18x

Above 700,000

1.18x

$109,516 vol7 markets

Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in September

Above 108

1.38x

Above 104

1.16x

$12,219 vol9 markets

Colorado permitted housing units this year

Above 34,000

2.73x

Above 32,000

1.22x

$14,077 vol5 markets

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0

1.65x

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0

4.13x

$139,489 vol6 markets

30Y US Treasury yield today?

5.37% or above

2.24x

5.35% or above

1.42x

$8,946 vol15 markets

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 3.5%

1.62x

Above 3.6%

3.52x

$46,631 vol21 markets

How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?

Above $4.20

2.29x

Above $4.40

2.81x

$223,631 vol10 markets

Port of New York and New Jersey container volume this year

Above 8.8 million TEUs

1.57x

Above 8.9 million TEUs

2.59x

$99,853 vol9 markets

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.07x

$1,211,032 vol1 market