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Politics

SCOTUS & courts

TrumpJan 1

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Apr 1, 2027

$42,622,391 vol7 more

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

MarketPays outOdds

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.86x

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.40x

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.50x

Before Jul 1, 2028

1.40x

$42,622,391 vol5 more

1 of 3

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.83x

Before Oct 1, 2027

1.79x

$7,357,600 vol8 markets

Trump’s approval rating on Friday?

Below 38.8

3.52x

39.7 to 39.9

4.31x

$42,162 vol8 markets

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.08x

$3,037,370 vol1 market

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

4.51x

Before 2028

7.25x

$36,400,057 vol6 markets

Will Trump resign during his term?

Yes

4.73x

No

1.22x

$380,444 vol1 market

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (9/7-9/13)

6

2.05x

7

1.97x

$11,830 vol5 markets

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 20, 2029

2.89x

Before Jan 1, 2028

4.98x

$20,542,294 vol8 markets

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Amy Gleason

Amy Gleason

Amy Gleason

2.89x

Howard Lutnick

Howard Lutnick

Howard Lutnick

3.40x

$7,571,244 vol30 markets

Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (9/6 - 9/12)

Yes

5.90x

No

1.16x

$6,212 vol1 market

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Dec 1, 2026

3.66x

Before Nov 1, 2026

5.90x

$1,194,553 vol3 markets

Will Trump be impeached?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.60x

Before Mar 1, 2027

5.25x

$4,572,526 vol3 markets

SCOTUS & courts

Who will be charged with a federal crime this year?

Anthony Fauci

Anthony Fauci

Anthony Fauci

2.52x

John Brennan

John Brennan

John Brennan

2.81x

$1,691,635 vol41 markets

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Before 2027

2.81x

Before 2028

1.36x

$7,253,090 vol3 markets

Who will speak at the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention?

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

1.97x

Lara Trump

Lara Trump

Lara Trump

2.52x

$44,992 vol13 markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)

Above 20

2.09x

Above 25

10.4x

$49,013 vol11 markets

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Yes

1.42x

No

2.98x

$543,119 vol1 market

Will Donald Trump issue a public apology?

Yes

7.25x

No

1.12x

$94,073 vol1 market

Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next?

Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

4.73x

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

4.73x

$178,026 vol21 markets

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Yes

18.8x

No

1.04x

$13,141,392 vol1 market

SCOTUS & courts

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?

Before Jul 1, 2027

4.73x

Before Jan 1, 2027

23.4x

$1,126,769 vol2 markets

Will the SAVE America Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2027

13.4x

Before Dec 1, 2026

23.4x

$3,970,569 vol4 markets