When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Apr 1, 2027

1.86x

Before Jan 1, 2027

2.05x

$35,654,595 vol9 markets

Congress

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Yes

13.4x

1.07x

$10,051,024 vol1 market

Congress

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Before Apr 1, 2027

1.86x

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.76x

$4,311,494 vol10 markets

Iran

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.09x

Before Jan 20, 2029

1.67x

$18,689,528 vol10 markets

Trump

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Before 2027

13.4x

Before August

$4,699,264 vol2 markets

Politics

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

Yes

4.98x

1.19x

$1,257,476 vol1 market

Recurring

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (7/26-8/1)

220-240

3.18x

200-219

3.66x

$302,395 vol10 markets

Recurring

Trump’s approval rating on Friday?

40.5 to 40.7

2.52x

40.2 to 40.4

3.96x

$174,442 vol8 markets

Trump

Who will be Trump’s next Attorney General?

Todd Blanche

1.14x

Lee Zeldin

31.2x

$10,187,015 vol22 markets

Congress

Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?

Yes

1.83x

1.97x

$159,180 vol1 market

Elections

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

New Hampshire

1.46x

South Carolina

4.13x

$35,283 vol4 markets

Congress

Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?

Brett Matsumoto

1.14x

David MacNeil

18.8x

$55,105 vol6 markets

Iran

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)

Above 50

1.76x

Above 55

2.24x

$53,494 vol12 markets

Trump

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Sep 1, 2026

11.7x

Before Aug 1, 2026

93.5x

$817,080 vol2 markets

Space

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

3.96x

Before 2028

5.56x

$33,381,236 vol8 markets

Trump

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Amy Gleason

2.14x

Kash Patel

2.73x

$6,169,927 vol32 markets

Trump

Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?

Before Sep 1, 2026

1.83x

Before Aug 1, 2026

2.24x

$60,246 vol4 markets

Congress

Will the SAVE America Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2027

7.85x

Before Dec 1, 2026

9.41x

$3,573,838 vol6 markets

SCOTUS & courts

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

John Brennan

2.01x

Letitia James

2.98x

$1,215,043 vol40 markets

Trump

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

Before Nov 4, 2026

2.66x

Before Sep 1, 2026

9.41x

$188,609 vol2 markets

Elections

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/24-7/31)?

Yes

1.06x

11.7x

$10,864 vol1 market

Politics

How many states will Trump visit this month?

1.06x

15.6x

$254,836 vol2 markets

Congress

When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?

Before Sep 1, 2026

1.67x

Before Oct 1, 2026

1.23x

$77,292 vol5 markets

Congress

When will FISA be reauthorized again?

Before Oct 1, 2026

2.19x

Before Jan 1, 2027

1.26x

$728,672 vol5 markets