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Trump

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will the U.S. move to revoke Ilhan Omar’s citizenship this year?

Yes
9.41x
No
1.09x
$36,484 vol

Will Ilhan Omar’s citizenship be revoked this year?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.02x
$1,179,067 vol

Which ICE reforms will become law this year?

Mandatory body-worn cameras
8.56x
Mask ban
23.4x
$59,042 vol

Will courts let the 75-country visa suspension resume?

Yes
8.56x
No
1.05x
$4,951 vol

Will ICE change its name this year?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.04x
$26,934 vol

Will undocumented immigrants be granted legal status?

Yes
5.25x
No
1.19x
$858 vol

How many U.S. visas will be revoked this year?

At least 250,000
1.65x
At least 300,000
2.34x
$197 vol

Will Temporary Protected Status for Ukraine end this year?

Yes
8.56x
No
1.03x
$2,486 vol

Will DHS submit a final OPT fee rule to OIRA this year?

Yes
6.74x
No
1.07x
$420 vol

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to this year?

Detroit
Detroit
6.74x
Houston
Houston
5.25x
$84,413 vol

Will Trump rename ICE to NICE?

Yes
46.8x
No
--
$2,044 vol

Will Trump expand the H-1B program?

Yes
3.96x
No
1.28x
$124,036 vol

Will E-Verify become mandatory nationwide?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.04x
$0 vol

Will E-Verify be expanded this year?

Yes
7.25x
No
1.04x
$811 vol

Will Dreamers be granted legal status?

Yes
4.73x
No
1.22x
$1,981 vol

Will the House pass a Dreamer bill?

Yes
1.62x
No
2.24x
$200 vol

Will DHS adopt a $100k OPT fee this year?

Yes
3.29x
No
1.23x
$132 vol

Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?

Yes
2.46x
No
1.42x
$5,696 vol

Will Trump pull CBP from a sanctuary city airport?

Yes
15.6x
No
--
$22,028 vol

When will Big Bend border construction resume?

Before Dec 1, 2026
1.62x
Before Jan 1, 2027
1.52x
$18,279 vol

Will the Afghan TPS discharge petition reach 218 signatures?

Yes
2.46x
No
1.40x
$0 vol