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Trump

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

What caused the FAA’s nationwide ground stop?

Maintenance or upgrade work
1.70x
Software or configuration error
1.40x
$261,843 vol

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028
3.40x
Before Oct 1, 2027
4.31x
$10,357,749 vol

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.14x
Before Jan 1, 2027
3.80x
$892,547 vol

Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?

Yes
1.20x
No
4.51x
$6,837 vol

Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.05x
$39,794 vol

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.65x
Before Jun 1, 2027
2.66x
$1,060,636 vol

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
15.6x
Stephen Miran
Stephen Miran
15.6x
$272,495 vol

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.73x
Before Oct 1, 2027
1.60x
$7,515,712 vol

When will Russian diesel be imported into the U.S.?

Before Jan 1, 2027
7.85x
Before Dec 1, 2026
11.7x
$58,966 vol

US tariff revenue for 2026

Above $300‎ billion
1.55x
Above $250‎ billion
1.06x
$13,977 vol

Will credit card rates be capped?

Before 2028
5.25x
Before 2027
93.5x
$480,779 vol

Will federal student loan wage garnishment resume before Jul 1, 2027?

Yes
2.40x
No
1.52x
$6,522 vol

Will Trump order more tariffs this month?

Yes
4.13x
No
1.22x
$5,835 vol

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Council Tax Replacement
23.4x
Inheritance Tax Rise
8.56x
$7,986 vol

Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.93x
Before Jan 1, 2027
5.25x
$15,880 vol

Which sectors will Trump tariff this year?

Critical minerals
6.74x
Canadian aircraft
8.56x
$48,480 vol

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

15% or above
6.74x
30% or above
7.25x
$9,804 vol

Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?

Yes
3.80x
No
1.26x
$6,679 vol

Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.05x
$144,191 vol

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.01x
$59,466 vol

Will Trump issue dividend payments?

Before Apr 1, 2027
18.8x
Before Jan 1, 2027
46.8x
$182,703 vol

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Yes
93.5x
No
1.01x
$5,327,726 vol

Will the Federal Reserve be abolished before 2027?

Yes
--
No
--
$15,114 vol

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

Above $10M
2.59x
Above $50M
3.96x
$21,309 vol