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Taxes & spending

Trade & tariffs

Federal Reserve

Business & regulation

SCOTUS & courts

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

US tariff revenue for 2026

Above $300‎ billion

1.55x

Above $250‎ billion

1.06x

$13,977 vol

Will Trump order more tariffs this month?

Yes

4.13x

No

1.22x

$5,835 vol

Which sectors will Trump tariff this year?

Critical minerals

6.74x

Canadian aircraft

8.56x

$48,480 vol

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

15% or above

6.74x

30% or above

7.25x

$9,804 vol

Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?

Yes

3.80x

No

1.26x

$6,679 vol

Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?

Yes

13.4x

No

1.05x

$144,191 vol

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Yes

93.5x

No

1.01x

$5,327,726 vol

Will Congress pass a bill repealing any of Trump’s tariffs?

Yes

1.50x

No

2.19x

$137 vol

What will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

20% or above

4.31x

10% or above

1.13x

$92 vol

Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump’s tariffs this year?

Yes

9.41x

No

1.04x

$37,852 vol

Which USMCA outcomes will occur this year?

U.S.–Mexico interim agreement

5.25x

Formal 16-year extension

15.6x

$14,168 vol

Will the tariff on imported kitchen cabinets rise to 50%?

Yes

1.67x

No

1.57x

$0 vol

Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

Before 2029

4.13x

Before 2028

5.25x

$20,482 vol

Will the US and China extend their trade truce again?

Before Jan 1, 2027

1.55x

Before Dec 1, 2026

4.13x

$0 vol

What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

20% or above

4.98x

10% or above

1.07x

$118 vol

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

10% or above

1.13x

15% or above

7.85x

$749 vol

What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

10% or above

1.10x

30% or above

13.4x

$3,429 vol

What will the tariff rate on Brazilian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

30% or above

1.05x

20% or above

1.02x

$109 vol

Will Trump embargo a new country?

Yes

15.6x

No

1.01x

$42,361 vol

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions?

Before Jul 1, 2027

2.14x

Before Jan 1, 2027

6.74x

$2,612 vol

Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal?

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.29x

Before Jan 1, 2027

4.31x

$2,480 vol

Will the Graham Act sanctions take effect?

Before 2028

2.14x

Before 2027

4.73x

$200 vol

Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?

Yes

4.73x

No

1.16x

$71,507 vol

Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with this year?

China

6.74x

Argentina

9.41x

$15,105 vol