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AI

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.05x
$39,794 vol

Will credit card rates be capped?

Before 2028
5.25x
Before 2027
93.5x
$480,779 vol

Will federal student loan wage garnishment resume before Jul 1, 2027?

Yes
2.40x
No
1.52x
$6,522 vol

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

Council Tax Replacement
23.4x
Inheritance Tax Rise
8.56x
$7,986 vol

Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.93x
Before Jan 1, 2027
5.25x
$15,880 vol

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.01x
$59,466 vol

Will Trump issue dividend payments?

Before Apr 1, 2027
18.8x
Before Jan 1, 2027
46.8x
$182,703 vol

Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?

Yes
93.5x
No
--
$1,289,189 vol

Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?

Yes
31.2x
No
--
$267,060 vol

When will Pennsylvania raise its minimum wage?

Before Mar 1, 2027
1.18x
Before Apr 1, 2027
1.10x
$8,556 vol

Will the debt ceiling be abolished?

Yes
23.4x
No
--
$15,816 vol

Who will join Trump’s sovereign wealth fund before 2027?

Bill Ackman
23.4x
Chamath Palihapitiya
15.6x
$22,189 vol

When will Texas enact a state income tax?

Before 2030
4.31x
Before 2029
7.25x
$10,125 vol

Will the federal gas tax be suspended?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.01x
$366,741 vol

Will the House pass a Social Security tax cap increase?

Yes
3.80x
No
1.29x
$0 vol

Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?

Yes
4.73x
No
1.14x
$2,184 vol

Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.24x
Before Jan 1, 2027
6.74x
$50,022 vol

Will New York tax QSBS gains?

Yes
11.7x
No
1.06x
$3,160 vol

Will Mamdani tax billion-dollar incomes this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.01x
$100,629 vol

Will Mamdani raise property taxes?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.06x
$26,477 vol

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.02x
$25,840 vol

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes?

Before 2029
2.05x
Before 2030
2.24x
$111,225 vol

Will the nickel be discontinued?

Yes
--
No
--
$1,478 vol

Will the House pass a bill raising the federal minimum wage?

Yes
1.15x
No
3.96x
$440 vol