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AI

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.14x
Before Jan 1, 2027
3.80x
$892,547 vol

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.65x
Before Jun 1, 2027
2.66x
$1,060,636 vol

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
15.6x
Stephen Miran
Stephen Miran
15.6x
$272,495 vol

Will the Federal Reserve be abolished before 2027?

Yes
--
No
--
$15,114 vol

Will John Williams be out as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.01x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.01x
$0 vol

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.19x
Before Jan 1, 2030
6.29x
$8,194 vol

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Before Jan 1, 2028
4.51x
Before Jul 1, 2027
7.85x
$33,687 vol

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.01x
$411,299 vol

Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.70x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.40x
$4,407 vol

Will Trump or the U.S. government sue Jerome Powell this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.01x
$6,793 vol

Lisa Cook departure announced?

Before Jan 2029
4.13x
Before Jul 2028
5.90x
$2,444,179 vol

When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.83x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.65x
$2,235 vol

Will the Federal Reserve be abolished?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.03x
$138,573 vol

Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell?

Yes
18.8x
No
--
$34,619 vol

Will the Committee of Inquiry recommend Lisa Cook’s removal?

Yes
1.16x
No
3.80x
$0 vol