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Trump

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.79x
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
2.46x
$14,254,950 vol

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.01x
Before Feb 1, 2027
1.67x
$85,536 vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Feb 1, 2027
2.52x
$4,558,265 vol

Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.86x
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
5.25x
$65,533 vol

Pete Hegseth departure announced?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.51x
Before Dec 25, 2026
4.73x
$592,120 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Dan Caine
Dan Caine
1.90x
Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy
1.79x
$15,296 vol

Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.90x
Before Oct 1, 2027
1.60x
$184,529 vol

Will Trump resign during his term?

Yes
3.80x
No
1.29x
$795,867 vol

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

Before Jan 1, 2028
2.66x
Before Oct 1, 2027
3.40x
$696,820 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before July?

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
1.97x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
1.57x
$10,905 vol

Magdalena Andersson out as Social Democrats leader?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.60x
Before Jan 1, 2027
3.08x
$2,083 vol

Jessica Tisch departure announced?

Before Jan 1, 2028
2.46x
Before Jul 1, 2027
3.08x
$43,247 vol

RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.48x
$10,096 vol

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?

Before Jan 1, 2028
4.31x
Before Jan 1, 2027
10.4x
$83,042 vol

Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$264,650 vol

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.65x
Before Jun 1, 2027
2.66x
$1,060,636 vol

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.60x
$2,886,633 vol

Stephen Miller out as White House Chief of Staff?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.83x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
$3,420 vol

Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?

Yes
1.48x
No
2.24x
$17,605 vol

Bryan Bedford out as FAA Administrator?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.73x
Before Dec 1, 2026
4.51x
$470 vol

Scott Bessent announces departure as Secretary of the Treasury?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.93x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.55x
$925 vol

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
1.55x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
5.56x
$34,862 vol

How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired this year?

0
1.23x
1
5.25x
$150,840 vol

Kash Patel departure announced?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.04x
$317,203 vol