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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.90x
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
2.40x
$14,258,026 vol

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Feb 1, 2027
1.70x
$85,664 vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.65x
Before Feb 1, 2027
2.52x
$4,558,270 vol

Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.97x
Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy
4.31x
$68,757 vol

Pete Hegseth departure announced?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.51x
Before Dec 25, 2026
4.73x
$592,120 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Dan Caine
Dan Caine
1.90x
Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy
1.79x
$15,296 vol

Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.90x
Before Oct 1, 2027
1.60x
$185,529 vol

Will Trump resign during his term?

Yes
3.80x
No
1.29x
$795,931 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before July?

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
1.97x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
1.57x
$10,905 vol

How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired this year?

0
1.23x
1
5.56x
$150,840 vol

RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.48x
$10,096 vol

Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$264,650 vol

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.65x
Before Jun 1, 2027
2.66x
$1,060,636 vol

Stephen Miller out as White House Chief of Staff?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.83x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
$3,420 vol

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.60x
$2,886,633 vol

Scott Bessent announces departure as Secretary of the Treasury?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.93x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.55x
$925 vol

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
1.55x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
5.56x
$34,862 vol

Kash Patel departure announced?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.04x
$317,203 vol

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

At least 2
1.57x
At least 3
2.98x
$771 vol

Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?

Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
1.55x
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
3.29x
$3,843 vol

Will John Williams be out as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.01x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.01x
$0 vol

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.19x
Before Jan 1, 2030
6.29x
$8,194 vol

Frank Bradley departure announced?

Yes
18.8x
No
--
$11,239 vol

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration this year?

Yes
5.56x
No
1.12x
$319 vol