What are prediction markets?
A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts on the outcome of future events, such as an election, an economic report or a championship. Each contract’s price moves as traders buy and sell, and that price reads as the market’s implied probability that the event happens.
How an event contract works
The asset traded on a prediction market is an event contract. Each market asks a yes-or-no question about a future event — will a party control the Senate, will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its next meeting — and you can buy Yes or No.
A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it doesn’t. A No contract is the other side of the same question: it pays $1 if the outcome does not happen.
How prices reflect probability
Because a contract pays $1 when its outcome happens, its price in cents reads as the percent chance traders give that outcome. A Yes price of $0.37 implies roughly a 37% chance; a price of $0.80 implies roughly 80%.
Prices come from members trading with one another, not from Kalshi, and they move as traders react to news and new information. A 70% price expresses a likelihood, not a guarantee.
As an illustration, buying 100 Yes contracts at 37 cents costs $37 before fees. If the event happens, those contracts pay $100, a $63 gain before fees. If it doesn’t, they pay $0 and you lose the $37 purchase cost plus fees. Payout is different from profit.
How markets settle
Every market has rules that define exactly what counts as Yes. The Market Rules appear under the market’s prices, and the full Contract Rules are linked from them. Read both before trading: they set out details such as which source decides the outcome and when.
Once the outcome is known, the market is determined under those rules and settled. A winning contract pays $1 and a losing contract pays $0. Before then, you can generally sell a position at the current price, as long as another trader is willing to take the other side.
How accurate are prediction markets?
Across 2,324,833 resolved Kalshi markets from 2021 to mid-2026, prices were well calibrated: outcomes priced at a given chance happened about that often. Accuracy improves as a market nears resolution, with Brier scores falling from about 0.09 three months out to roughly 0.02 at close.
These are aggregate historical results. They are not an accuracy score for any single unresolved market.
Is Kalshi regulated?
Yes. Kalshi is a financial exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). Its event contracts, and all trading on Kalshi, are subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and the Core Principles the CFTC sets for designated contract markets.
All trades on Kalshi are fully collateralized: you deposit the full amount needed to take a position, and those funds stay on the platform for as long as you hold it.
Risks to understand
Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. You can lose the full amount you spend on a position: a contract that resolves against you pays $0, and your purchase cost plus any fees are not returned. Past market accuracy, historical volume and displayed probabilities do not guarantee any outcome.
Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any contract.
See live markets
Every market on Kalshi shows its current price, its chart and its rules. Browse them by category: