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Trending

Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 51% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 84 days to Election
48DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado97%DDelaware98%DGeorgia91%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota94%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey97%DNew Mexico97%DOregon98%DRhode Island97%DVirginia95%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire88%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DMaine65%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 3Rep 2
DAlaska53%RIowa60%DMichigan57%ROhio51%DTexas52%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RNebraska72%

Likely Republican

Total 3
RFlorida84%RKansas81%RSouth Carolina88%

Safe Republican

Total 12
RAlabama97%RArkansas94%RIdaho92%RKentucky95%RLouisiana93%RMississippi94%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota94%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming97%
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
51%
49%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
64%
36%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
57%
43%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
50%
50%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
41%
59%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Republican partyRepublican
13%
87%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
29%
71%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
52%
48%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
20%
80%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
88%
12%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
16%
84%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
7%
93%
Minnesota
D
Democratic (DFL) partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
91%
9%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
7%
93%
New Jersey
D
Cory BookerBooker*
R
Justin MurphyMurphy
98%
2%
Tennessee
D
Marquita BradshawBradshaw
R
Bill HagertyHagerty*
3%
97%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
50
$1,970,529 vol10 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$643,117 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$381,798 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$347,296 vol15 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$264,000 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$235,629 vol17 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$98,893 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$59,190 vol7 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$58,178 vol4 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$58,127 vol6 markets

More markets

128 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,214,747 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.57x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.46x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$669,539 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.42x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$353,972 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
US Elections

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$1,123 vol
Yes
1.20x
No
2.29x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$14,216 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$326,360 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$633 vol
Proposal 4
1.67x
Proposal 3
1.52x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Washington?

$600 vol
Initiative No. IL26-001
1.97x
Initiative No. IP26-645
2.09x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin?

$200 vol
Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment
1.57x
Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment
1.06x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$4,178 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.50x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$3,156 vol
Proposition 38
1.73x
Proposition 5
1.70x
US Elections

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

$39,005 vol
Governor
1.20x
Attorney General
1.10x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$15,800 vol
Yes
3.29x
No
1.23x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$38,049 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.52x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.14x
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$1,533 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.34x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.81x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,103 vol
Republican Party
1.18x
Democratic Party
4.73x
US Elections

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$6,539 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.28x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.40x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$12,595 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.57x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$213 vol
Republican party
1.16x
Democratic party
5.56x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$12,871 vol
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
10.4x
US Elections

Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?

$2,322 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.29x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.18x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,457 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.67x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.01x
US Elections

Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?

$10 vol
Yes
1.05x
No
2.14x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$22 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.81x
Ballot Measure 3
1.28x