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Trending

Elections

PoliticsCultureSportsCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 51% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 80 days to Election
48DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado96%DDelaware98%DGeorgia91%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts99%DNorth Carolina92%DNew Hampshire91%DNew Jersey97%DNew Mexico97%DOregon98%DRhode Island98%DVirginia95%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DMinnesota88%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DMaine66%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 4Rep 1
DAlaska53%RIowa55%DMichigan54%DOhio53%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RNebraska71%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RFlorida85%RKansas78%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama97%RArkansas97%RIdaho92%RKentucky90%RLouisiana94%RMississippi92%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Carolina90%RSouth Dakota94%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming97%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,062,992 vol10 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$643,197 vol2 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$433,057 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$393,277 vol6 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$272,356 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$249,140 vol17 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$109,936 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$59,974 vol7 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$58,440 vol4 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$58,137 vol6 markets

More markets

128 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,799,982 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.46x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$39,894 vol
Economic Development Districts Amendment
1.31x
Water Infrastructure Bond Question
1.18x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$711,498 vol
Yes
2.59x
No
1.52x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$12,433 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
1.93x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
1.38x
US Elections

Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?

$10,762 vol
Yes
1.28x
No
3.52x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

$8,663 vol
Legislative Salaries Amendment
2.52x
School Election Dates Amendment
1.36x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$15,177 vol
Amendment 3
1.46x
Amendment 2
1.46x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$19,203 vol
Proposition 144
1.76x
Proposition 320
1.73x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

$15,296 vol
Property Tax Millage
1.79x
Retirement Debt Funding
1.73x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?

$10,949 vol
Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment
1.36x
9-1-1 Fund Amendment
1.14x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$369,997 vol
Yes
1.28x
No
3.96x
US Elections

Will West Virginia require voters to be U.S. and West Virginia citizens?

$3,341 vol
Yes
1.05x
No
10.4x
US Elections

Will Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons?

$3,120 vol
Yes
1.48x
No
2.66x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Virginia?

$2,755 vol
Question 3
1.28x
Question 2
1.05x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?

$5,816 vol
Public Question 2
1.13x
Public Question 1
1.12x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$5,026 vol
Proposal 3
1.16x
Proposal 4
1.14x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$7,340 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.89x
Ballot Measure 3
1.13x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Maryland?

$3,758 vol
Question 3
1.34x
Question 1
1.29x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Florida?

$9,435 vol
Amendment 2
1.60x
Amendment 1
1.42x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$341,275 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.62x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$11,231 vol
Initiative #109
1.70x
Initiative #175
2.52x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

$4,181 vol
Amendment 2
1.19x
Amendment 1
1.13x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$2,308 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.34x
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
3.18x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$788 vol
Question 5
2.52x
Question 3
2.89x
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
65%
35%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
54%
46%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
53%
47%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
45%
55%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Republican partyRepublican
11%
89%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
30%
70%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
52%
48%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
22%
78%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
86%
14%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
88%
12%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
17%
83%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
7%
93%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
10%
90%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
9%
91%
New Jersey
D
Cory BookerBooker*
R
Justin MurphyMurphy
98%
2%
Tennessee
D
Marquita BradshawBradshaw
R
Bill HagertyHagerty*
3%
97%
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