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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 53% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 53 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado96%DDelaware98%DGeorgia92%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts96%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey97%DNew Mexico98%DOregon97%DRhode Island98%DVirginia96%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire84%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska66%DMaine67%DMichigan63%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DOhio52%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RIowa64%RNebraska71%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RKansas80%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama95%RArkansas94%RFlorida91%RIdaho95%RKentucky93%RLouisiana92%RMississippi94%RMontana92%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota92%RTennessee97%RWest Virginia96%RWyoming97%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
50
$2,507,469 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$797,568 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$649,560 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
$562,008 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$433,285 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$324,272 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$233,616 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$96,325 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$83,895 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$61,773 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
67%
33%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
62%
38%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
51%
49%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
36%
64%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
93%
7%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
28%
72%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
65%
35%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
21%
79%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
90%
10%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
9%
91%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
7%
93%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
83%
17%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
5%
95%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
6%
94%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
4%
96%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

134 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$93,500,384 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.46x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$425,356 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.65x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$874,876 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.44x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$580,036 vol
Yes
1.31x
No
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$10,365 vol
Proposition 42
2.01x
Proposition 37
1.60x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$7,474 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
1.33x
Attorney General

Kansas Attorney General winner?

$1,936 vol
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
1.62x
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
2.14x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$22,624 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?

$14,580 vol
Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond
1.16x
Economic & Infrastructure Bond
1.14x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$2,623 vol
Question 5
2.46x
Question 3
2.46x
Mixed Combos

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?

$21,786 vol
At least 1
4.73x
At least 3
6.74x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Nebraska?

$2,240 vol
Online Sports Wagering Authorization Constitutional Amendment
1.44x
Online Sports Wagering Regulation Initiative
1.44x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$981 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.65x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.05x
Other US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$3,336 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.48x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.46x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$2,983 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.25x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
3.80x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,357 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.51x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

$10,374 vol
Legislative Salaries Amendment
2.01x
School Election Dates Amendment
1.33x
US Elections

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

$32,423 vol
Yes
13.4x
No
1.04x
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$8,069 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.33x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.98x
Other US Elections

Missouri State Senate District 30 winner?

$19 vol
Melanie Stinnett
1.26x
Betsy Fogle
1.93x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$167,651 vol
David Morales
1.01x
Allen Waters
93.5x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$13,639 vol
Republican party
1.06x
Democratic party
9.41x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$11,577 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.28x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.66x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$2,439 vol
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.67x
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.97x