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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 60% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 44 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado98%DDelaware98%DGeorgia93%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina92%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island97%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire83%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska70%DMaine68%DMichigan66%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DOhio57%DTexas59%

Lean Republican

Total 3
RIowa61%RKansas74%RNebraska69%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RFlorida89%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 12
RAlabama98%RArkansas94%RIdaho94%RKentucky95%RLouisiana93%RMississippi92%RMontana92%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota93%RTennessee96%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming98%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,908,608 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

49
48
$1,034,134 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$788,629 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$650,042 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$539,895 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$341,078 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$252,957 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$196,776 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$95,856 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 4
$66,391 vol4 markets

More markets

136 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$95,124,584 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.55x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.52x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$662,491 vol
Yes
1.19x
No
4.98x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$13,527 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.38x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$87,744 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.67x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.24x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$493,832 vol
Yes
2.09x
No
1.76x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$900,121 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.42x
US Elections

Georgia Lieutenant Governor winner?

$2,870 vol
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
Greg Dolezal
1.86x
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
Josh McLaurin
1.86x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2,357 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.07x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.48x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$23,441 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$185,183 vol
David Morales
1.01x
Brett Smiley
46.8x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$19,995 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.33x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$20,406 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.06x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.66x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$13,689 vol
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
8.56x
Secretary of State

Georgia Secretary of State winner?

$5,650 vol
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
Tim Fleming
1.67x
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
Penny Brown Reynolds
1.86x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$24,696 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
1.97x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
1.28x
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$1,759 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
7.25x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$4,411 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
1.76x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
2.09x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$19,806 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.28x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.08x
US Elections

California Lieutenant Governor winner?

$100,704 vol
Fiona Ma
1.05x
Gloria Romero
--
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,885 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.04x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
10.4x
Attorney General

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

$20,203 vol
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
1.10x
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
5.56x
Other US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$4,248 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.04x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.14x
US Elections

How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?

$906 vol
At least 2
1.90x
At least 1
1.50x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,422 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
2.14x
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
59%
41%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
67%
33%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
65%
35%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
56%
44%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
40%
60%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
31%
69%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
94%
6%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
27%
73%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
70%
30%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
82%
18%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
12%
88%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
8%
92%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
7%
93%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
7%
93%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
6%
94%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
6%
94%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
1–5 of 35
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