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2026 Midterms

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US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

Key races

Texas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Talarico62%
Paxton38%
Projected marginD +1.7

Maine Senate winner?

Nov 3
Jackson57%
Collins43%
Projected marginD +1.2

Ohio Senate winner?

Nov 3
Brown59%
Husted41%
Projected marginD +1.9

Michigan Senate winner?

Nov 3
El-Sayed66%
Rogers34%
Projected marginD +2.5

Iowa Senate winner?

Nov 3
Turek42%
Hinson58%
Projected marginR +0.7

Kansas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Hamilton37%
Marshall63%

Alaska Senate winner?

Nov 4
Democrat73%
Republican27%

Nebraska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Osborn27%
Ricketts73%
Projected marginR +3.6

Ohio Governor winner?

Nov 3
Acton67%
Ramaswamy33%
Projected marginD +3.4

Georgia Governor winner?

Nov 3
Bottoms45%
Jackson55%
Projected marginR +0.8

Nevada Governor winner?

Nov 3
Ford51%
Lombardo49%
Projected marginD +0.2

FL-14 House winner?

Nov 3
Castor67%
Beltran33%
Projected marginD +4.7
SenateHouseGovernorStatesBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast

Democrats have a 61% chance to control the Senate

23 days to Election
51DemocratsDem seats
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado100%DDelaware99%DGeorgia95%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts98%DNorth Carolina96%DNew Hampshire90%DNew Jersey99%DNew Mexico96%DOregon98%DRhode Island99%DVirginia98%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DMinnesota86%

Lean Democratic

Total 4
DAlaska73%DMichigan67%DOhio60%DTexas63%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
RIowa57%DMaine58%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas63%RNebraska74%

Likely Republican

Total 1
RSouth Carolina86%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama98%RArkansas94%RFlorida91%RIdaho94%RKentucky96%RLouisiana95%RMississippi92%RMontana94%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota95%RTennessee91%RWest Virginia97%RWyoming97%

More markets

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
52
$4,252,416 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

48
49
$2,082,315 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$1,569,084 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Texas
Texas
Texas
$851,447 vol20 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$732,962 vol2 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$435,392 vol7 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$421,301 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$402,442 vol1 market
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$109,026 vol6 markets
Senate

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Both lose
Both win
$80,118 vol4 markets
160 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$101,090,173 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.86x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.97x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$121,651 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.14x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
6.29x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$1,188,583 vol
Yes
1.14x
No
6.74x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,521,741 vol
Yes
3.40x
No
1.33x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$665,538 vol
Yes
2.14x
No
1.73x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$71,234 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.42x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.89x
Attorney General

Delaware Attorney General winner?

$53,683 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.46x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
46.8x
US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$7,274 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.31x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.80x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$26,622 vol
Proposition 45
1.83x
Proposition 5
2.01x
Attorney General

Oklahoma Attorney General winner?

$6,895 vol
Jon Echols
Jon Echols
Jon Echols
1.05x
Nick Coffey
Nick Coffey
Nick Coffey
18.8x
US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$137,727 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.70x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.09x
Attorney General

Massachusetts Attorney General winner?

$16,244 vol
Andrea Joy Campbell
Andrea Joy Campbell
Andrea Joy Campbell
1.04x
Michael C. Walsh
Michael C. Walsh
Michael C. Walsh
46.8x
Attorney General

North Dakota Attorney General winner?

$13,155 vol
Drew Wrigley
Drew Wrigley
Drew Wrigley
1.04x
Tim Lamb
Tim Lamb
Tim Lamb
31.2x
Attorney General

Vermont Attorney General winner?

$20,104 vol
Charity R. Clark
Charity R. Clark
Charity R. Clark
1.04x
Ed Kemon
Ed Kemon
Ed Kemon
31.2x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$8,204 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
1.76x
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
1.65x
Attorney General

Arkansas Attorney General winner?

$36,617 vol
Tim Griffin
Tim Griffin
Tim Griffin
1.03x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
46.8x
US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$6,252 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.65x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.73x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$29,288 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
2.46x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
6.29x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$37,580 vol
Yes
2.46x
No
1.52x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$29,052 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.29x
US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$12,149 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.14x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
18.8x
Attorney General

Connecticut Attorney General winner?

$7,863 vol
William Tong
William Tong
William Tong
1.04x
John Bolton
John Bolton
John Bolton
31.2x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$18,558 vol
No, ≥13%
2.14x
No, ≥1%
1.42x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$70,021 vol
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
1.83x
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.97x
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
63%
Projected marginD +1.7
37%
Projected marginD +1.7
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
57%
Projected marginD +1.2
43%
Projected marginD +1.2
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
59%
Projected marginD +1.9
41%
Projected marginD +1.9
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
66%
Projected marginD +2.5
34%
Projected marginD +2.5
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
43%
Projected marginR +0.7
57%
Projected marginR +0.7
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
37%
63%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
96%
Projected marginD +9.7
4%
Projected marginD +9.7
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
15%
Projected marginR +4.6
85%
Projected marginR +4.6
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
73%
27%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
27%
Projected marginR +3.6
73%
Projected marginR +3.6
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
90%
Projected marginD +7.5
10%
Projected marginD +7.5
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
86%
Projected marginD +6.5
14%
Projected marginD +6.5
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
95%
Projected marginD +9.4
5%
Projected marginD +9.4
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
9%
Projected marginR +7.7
91%
Projected marginR +7.7
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
7%
Projected marginR +11.1
93%
Projected marginR +11.1
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
6%
Projected marginR +14.4
94%
Projected marginR +14.4
Tennessee
D
Marquita BradshawBradshaw
R
Bill HagertyHagerty*
7%
Projected marginR +16.3
93%
Projected marginR +16.3
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
8%
Projected marginR +9.0
92%
Projected marginR +9.0
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
6%
Projected marginR +15.0
94%
Projected marginR +15.0
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
Projected marginR +16.7
93%
Projected marginR +16.7
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