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Trending

Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 23 seats, Republicans favored to hold 22 seats, with 5 toss-ups

Early forecasts · 84 days to Election
23Democrats
Republicans22
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 13
DCalifornia95%DColorado94%DConnecticut99%DHawaii98%DIllinois94%DMassachusetts94%DMaryland96%DMaine96%DMinnesota95%DNew Mexico92%DNew York95%DPennsylvania95%DRhode Island94%

Likely Democratic

Total 3
DArizona85%DMichigan85%DOregon89%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DIowa68%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 4Rep 1
DAlaska54%DGeorgia57%RKansas60%DNevada53%DOhio51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RWisconsin62%

Likely Republican

Total 4
RFlorida82%RNebraska89%RNew Hampshire84%RTexas86%

Safe Republican

Total 9
RAlabama91%RArkansas99%RIdaho95%ROklahoma94%RSouth Carolina92%RSouth Dakota94%RTennessee97%RVermont93%RWyoming96%

More markets

128 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,214,747 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.57x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.46x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$669,539 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.42x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$353,972 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
US Elections

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$1,123 vol
Yes
1.20x
No
2.29x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$14,216 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$326,360 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$633 vol
Proposal 4
1.67x
Proposal 3
1.52x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Washington?

$600 vol
Initiative No. IL26-001
1.97x
Initiative No. IP26-645
2.09x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin?

$200 vol
Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment
1.57x
Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment
1.06x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$4,178 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.50x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$3,156 vol
Proposition 38
1.73x
Proposition 5
1.70x
US Elections

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

$39,005 vol
Governor
1.20x
Attorney General
1.10x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$15,800 vol
Yes
3.29x
No
1.23x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$38,049 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.52x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.14x
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$1,533 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.34x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.81x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,103 vol
Republican Party
1.18x
Democratic Party
4.73x
US Elections

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$6,539 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.28x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.40x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$12,595 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.57x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$213 vol
Republican party
1.16x
Democratic party
5.56x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$12,871 vol
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
10.4x
US Elections

Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?

$2,322 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.29x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.18x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,457 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.67x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.01x
US Elections

Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?

$10 vol
Yes
1.05x
No
2.14x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$22 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.81x
Ballot Measure 3
1.28x

Combos

Governor

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party
Republican Party
$209,037 vol3 markets
Governor

Closest Governor race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
$51,650 vol14 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$23,755 vol1 market
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 1
Exactly 2
$3,611 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 24
At least 23
$1,407 vol8 markets
California
D
Xavier BecerraBecerra
R
Steve HiltonHilton
96%
4%
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
50%
50%
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
13%
87%
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
95%
5%
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
57%
43%
Arizona
D
Katie HobbsHobbs*
R
Andy BiggsBiggs
85%
15%
Wisconsin
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
39%
61%
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
94%
6%
Iowa
D
Rob SandSand
R
Zach LahnLahn
68%
32%
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
53%
47%
Michigan
D
Jocelyn BensonBenson
R
John JamesJames
85%
15%
Minnesota
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
95%
5%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
19%
81%
Oregon
D
Tina KotekKotek*
R
Christine DrazanDrazan
87%
13%
Massachusetts
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
94%
6%
Colorado
D
Phil WeiserWeiser
R
Victor MarxMarx
97%
3%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
51%
49%
Oklahoma
D
Cyndi MunsonMunson
R
Republican partyRepublican
4%
96%
Vermont
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
9%
91%
Alabama
D
Doug JonesJones
R
Tommy TubervilleTuberville
8%
92%
1–5 of 36
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