MARKETSPERPSLIVE124
Cash
Portfolio
Trending

Elections

PoliticsCultureSportsCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive124AccountSocial

2026 Midterms

Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

Key races

Texas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Talarico62%
Paxton38%
Projected marginD +1.7

Maine Senate winner?

Nov 3
Jackson57%
Collins43%
Projected marginD +1.2

Ohio Senate winner?

Nov 3
Brown59%
Husted41%
Projected marginD +1.9

Michigan Senate winner?

Nov 3
El-Sayed66%
Rogers34%
Projected marginD +2.5

Iowa Senate winner?

Nov 3
Turek43%
Hinson57%
Projected marginR +0.7

Kansas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Hamilton37%
Marshall63%

Alaska Senate winner?

Nov 4
Democrat73%
Republican27%

Nebraska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Osborn27%
Ricketts73%
Projected marginR +3.6

Ohio Governor winner?

Nov 3
Acton68%
Ramaswamy32%
Projected marginD +3.4

Georgia Governor winner?

Nov 3
Bottoms45%
Jackson55%
Projected marginR +0.8

Nevada Governor winner?

Nov 3
Ford51%
Lombardo49%
Projected marginD +0.2

FL-14 House winner?

Nov 3
Castor67%
Beltran33%
Projected marginD +4.7
SenateHouseGovernorStatesBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 26 seats, Republicans favored to hold 22 seats, with 2 toss-ups

23 days to Election
26Democrats
Republicans22
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 14
DCalifornia96%DColorado96%DConnecticut96%DHawaii96%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts95%DMaryland98%DMaine95%DMichigan92%DMinnesota95%DNew Mexico92%DNew York95%DPennsylvania97%DRhode Island97%

Likely Democratic

Total 5
DAlaska80%DArizona88%DIowa88%DOregon77%DWisconsin81%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DOhio68%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 1Rep 1
RGeorgia56%DNevada52%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RKansas75%

Likely Republican

Total 3
RFlorida78%RTexas81%RVermont77%

Safe Republican

Total 10
RAlabama93%RArkansas98%RIdaho99%RNebraska91%RNew Hampshire93%ROklahoma92%RSouth Carolina95%RSouth Dakota99%RTennessee95%RWyoming97%
Florida
D
David JollyJolly
R
Byron DonaldsDonalds
22%
Projected marginR +5.1
78%
Projected marginR +5.1
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
68%
Projected marginD +3.4
32%
Projected marginD +3.4
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
95%
Projected marginD +14.4
5%
Projected marginD +14.4
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
19%
Projected marginR +5.4
81%
Projected marginR +5.4
California
D
Xavier BecerraBecerra
R
Steve HiltonHilton
97%
Projected marginD +23.6
3%
Projected marginD +23.6
Iowa
D
Rob SandSand
R
Zach LahnLahn
87%
Projected marginD +6.9
13%
Projected marginD +6.9
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
45%
Projected marginR +0.8
55%
Projected marginR +0.8
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
51%
Projected marginD +0.2
49%
Projected marginD +0.2
Wisconsin
D
David CrowleyCrowley
R
Tom TiffanyTiffany
80%
Projected marginD +4.0
20%
Projected marginD +4.0
Massachusetts
D
Maura HealeyHealey*
R
Mike MinogueMinogue
95%
Projected marginD +25.5
5%
Projected marginD +25.5
Arizona
D
Katie HobbsHobbs*
R
Andy BiggsBiggs
86%
Projected marginD +6.7
14%
Projected marginD +6.7
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
97%
Projected marginD +23.5
3%
Projected marginD +23.5
Vermont
D
Amanda JanooJanoo
R
Phil ScottScott*
22%
Projected marginR +4.6
78%
Projected marginR +4.6
Minnesota
D
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
R
Lisa DemuthDemuth
96%
Projected marginD +12.9
4%
Projected marginD +12.9
Michigan
D
Jocelyn BensonBenson
R
John JamesJames
92%
8%
Oregon
D
Tina KotekKotek*
R
Christine DrazanDrazan
75%
Projected marginD +4.4
25%
Projected marginD +4.4
New Hampshire
D
Cinde WarmingtonWarmington
R
Kelly AyotteAyotte*
7%
Projected marginR +8.7
93%
Projected marginR +8.7
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
78%
22%
Oklahoma
D
Cyndi MunsonMunson
R
Mike MazzeiMazzei
7%
Projected marginR +11.3
93%
Projected marginR +11.3
Kansas
D
Cindy HolscherHolscher
R
Ty MastersonMasterson
25%
Projected marginR +4.6
75%
Projected marginR +4.6
1–5 of 36
Showing 5 of 36

Combos

Governor Combos

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Republican Party
Republican Party
$246,065 vol3 markets
Governor Combos

Closest Governor race this year?

Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
$99,816 vol23 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$62,142 vol1 market
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 3
Exactly 2
$25,955 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta this year?

Nevada
Nevada
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
$9,336 vol8 markets
Governor Combos

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 23
At least 24
$9,105 vol8 markets
Governor Combos

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta this year?

Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
$4,746 vol15 markets

More markets

160 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$101,090,207 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.86x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.97x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$121,651 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.14x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
6.29x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$1,189,257 vol
Yes
1.14x
No
6.74x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,521,746 vol
Yes
3.40x
No
1.33x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$665,963 vol
Yes
2.19x
No
1.67x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$71,234 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.42x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.98x
Attorney General

Delaware Attorney General winner?

$53,683 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.46x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
46.8x
US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$7,284 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.29x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.80x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$26,622 vol
Proposition 45
1.83x
Proposition 5
2.01x
Attorney General

Oklahoma Attorney General winner?

$6,895 vol
Jon Echols
Jon Echols
Jon Echols
1.05x
Nick Coffey
Nick Coffey
Nick Coffey
18.8x
US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$137,727 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.70x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.09x
Attorney General

Massachusetts Attorney General winner?

$16,256 vol
Andrea Joy Campbell
Andrea Joy Campbell
Andrea Joy Campbell
1.04x
Michael C. Walsh
Michael C. Walsh
Michael C. Walsh
46.8x
Attorney General

North Dakota Attorney General winner?

$13,163 vol
Drew Wrigley
Drew Wrigley
Drew Wrigley
1.04x
Tim Lamb
Tim Lamb
Tim Lamb
31.2x
Attorney General

Vermont Attorney General winner?

$20,118 vol
Charity R. Clark
Charity R. Clark
Charity R. Clark
1.04x
Ed Kemon
Ed Kemon
Ed Kemon
31.2x
Attorney General

Arkansas Attorney General winner?

$36,631 vol
Tim Griffin
Tim Griffin
Tim Griffin
1.03x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
46.8x
US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$6,252 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.65x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.73x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$37,580 vol
Yes
2.46x
No
1.52x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$29,052 vol
Yes
3.52x
No
1.29x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$29,288 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
2.46x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
7.85x
Attorney General

Illinois Attorney General winner?

$11,482 vol
Kwame Raoul
Kwame Raoul
Kwame Raoul
1.03x
Bob Fioretti
Bob Fioretti
Bob Fioretti
31.2x
US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$12,149 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.14x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
18.8x
Attorney General

Connecticut Attorney General winner?

$7,875 vol
William Tong
William Tong
William Tong
1.04x
John Bolton
John Bolton
John Bolton
31.2x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$8,204 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
1.76x
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
1.65x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$18,558 vol
No, ≥13%
2.14x
No, ≥4%
1.44x