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Trending

Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 23 seats, Republicans favored to hold 23 seats, with 4 toss-ups

Early forecasts · 87 days to Election
23Democrats
Republicans23
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 13
DCalifornia94%DColorado94%DConnecticut97%DHawaii98%DIllinois94%DMassachusetts92%DMaryland96%DMaine96%DMinnesota95%DNew Mexico90%DNew York92%DPennsylvania93%DRhode Island91%

Likely Democratic

Total 3
DArizona84%DMichigan84%DOregon88%

Lean Democratic

Total 1
DIowa64%

Toss-up

Total 4Dem 2Rep 2
RAlaska54%DGeorgia59%DNevada56%ROhio51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RWisconsin61%

Likely Republican

Total 5
RFlorida80%RKansas78%RNebraska85%RNew Hampshire83%RTexas87%

Safe Republican

Total 9
RAlabama92%RArkansas99%RIdaho95%ROklahoma92%RSouth Carolina90%RSouth Dakota94%RTennessee97%RVermont90%RWyoming96%

More markets

92 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$89,415,079 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.48x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$309,371 vol
Yes
2.14x
No
1.73x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$653,105 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.40x
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$1,505 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.34x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.89x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$348,413 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$12,421 vol
Yes
2.52x
No
1.52x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$37,674 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.52x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.66x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$12,869 vol
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
10.4x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$12,837 vol
Yes
1.93x
No
1.83x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,058 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.73x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$15,123 vol
Yes
4.98x
No
1.19x
Mixed Combos

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?

$21,217 vol
At least 1
4.98x
At least 3
7.85x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$586 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.65x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.01x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$10,370 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
4.51x
Virginia HJR 1
1.05x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,515 vol
Bo French
1.31x
Jon Rosenthal
2.89x
Other US Elections

Florida State House winner?

$4,395 vol
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
7.85x
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State House winner?

$186 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.48x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.40x
Other US Elections

Iowa State House winner?

$429 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.14x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.73x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$210 vol
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
5.25x
Other US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$101 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.14x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.73x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,455 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.67x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.01x
Other US Elections

Iowa State Senate winner?

$421 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.98x
Other US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$3,206 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.40x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.59x
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$6,634 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.90x

Combos

Governor

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party
Republican Party
$208,964 vol3 markets
Governor

Closest Governor race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
$51,322 vol14 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$23,752 vol1 market
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 1
Exactly 2
$3,611 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 24
At least 23
$1,398 vol8 markets
California
D
Xavier BecerraBecerra
R
Steve HiltonHilton
95%
5%
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
50%
50%
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
12%
88%
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
91%
9%
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
58%
42%
Arizona
D
Katie HobbsHobbs*
R
Andy BiggsBiggs
83%
17%
Wisconsin
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
40%
60%
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
92%
8%
Iowa
D
Rob SandSand
R
Zach LahnLahn
63%
37%
Michigan
D
Jocelyn BensonBenson
R
John JamesJames
83%
17%
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
54%
46%
Minnesota
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
95%
5%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
21%
79%
Oregon
D
Tina KotekKotek*
R
Christine DrazanDrazan
87%
13%
Massachusetts
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
94%
6%
Colorado
D
Phil WeiserWeiser
R
Victor MarxMarx
94%
6%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
45%
55%
Oklahoma
D
Cyndi MunsonMunson
R
Republican partyRepublican
5%
95%
Vermont
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
11%
89%
Alabama
D
Doug JonesJones
R
Tommy TubervilleTuberville
9%
91%
1–5 of 36
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