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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 61% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 39 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats47
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado98%DDelaware98%DGeorgia94%DIllinois98%DMassachusetts98%DMinnesota90%DNorth Carolina93%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island99%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire87%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska71%DMaine65%DMichigan74%

Toss-up

Total 3Dem 2Rep 1
RIowa57%DOhio59%DTexas59%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas67%RNebraska73%

Likely Republican

Total 1
RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama98%RArkansas92%RFlorida90%RIdaho91%RKentucky95%RLouisiana92%RMississippi90%RMontana90%ROklahoma97%RSouth Dakota92%RTennessee98%RWest Virginia98%RWyoming97%

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$3,276,679 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

48
47
$1,144,748 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$957,993 vol6 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$669,151 vol2 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Texas
Texas
Texas
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
$609,270 vol20 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Talarico defeats Paxton
Paxton defeats Talarico
$343,459 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$313,531 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$240,398 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 2
$95,890 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 4
$67,878 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
60%
40%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
64%
36%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
59%
41%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
73%
27%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
44%
56%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
94%
6%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
71%
29%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
29%
71%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
34%
66%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
14%
86%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
94%
6%
New Hampshire
D
Chris PappasPappas
R
John E. SununuSununu
85%
15%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
89%
11%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
12%
88%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
10%
90%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
5%
95%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
9%
91%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
9%
91%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

140 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$97,200,411 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.67x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
2.24x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,065,318 vol
Yes
3.08x
No
1.38x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$544,148 vol
Yes
1.93x
No
1.90x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$720,581 vol
Yes
1.15x
No
6.29x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$10,097 vol
Yes
4.98x
No
1.19x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$21,945 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.38x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
2.73x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$99,846 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.73x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
2.14x
Attorney General

Ohio Attorney General winner?

$2,970 vol
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
1.04x
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
1.08x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$27,175 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.36x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$51,082 vol
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
1.50x
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
2.29x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$2,331 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.42x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.65x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$17,871 vol
Yes
2.59x
No
1.42x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$30,343 vol
Proposition 320
1.67x
Proposition 318
1.97x
Mixed Combos

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?

$23,391 vol
At least 1
1.90x
At least 5
10.4x
Other US Elections

Maine State Senate winner?

$5,567 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.06x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.73x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$12,342 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.16x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
2.01x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$11,817 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
1.28x
Virginia Question 1
1.01x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$5,091 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
2.34x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
3.66x
Attorney General

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

$20,294 vol
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
1.14x
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
4.13x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$22,133 vol
Yes
1.34x
No
2.34x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$17,802 vol
Proposition 39
3.29x
Proposition 43
2.24x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$21,262 vol
Yes
2.73x
No
1.44x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$21,877 vol
Amendment 82
1.90x
Amendment 87
1.83x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$3,023 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.18x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
3.96x