What are the latest 2026 midterm election predictions?
As of November 5, 2026: Kalshi traders give Democrats a 100% chance of controlling the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 100% chance of controlling the House after the 2026 midterms. The most traded competitive 2026 midterm race on Kalshi is Mississippi Senate, where Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith 96% to 3%. Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 22 and Republicans in 13 of the 35 Senate races in 2026; none of those is a toss-up. Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 260 and Republicans in 175 of the 435 House races in 2026; none of those is a toss-up. Kalshi traders favor Democrats in 24 and Republicans in 12 of the 36 governor races in 2026; none of those is a toss-up. The most traded 2026 Senate race on Kalshi is Texas, where James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 99% to 0%. The most traded 2026 Senate combo on Kalshi is “How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?”, with $22 million traded. Kalshi lists 85 more US election markets beyond its Senate, House and governor races.
Who is favored to win the 2026 midterms?
As of November 5, 2026, Kalshi traders favor Democrats to win the Senate, at 100%, and Democrats to win the House, at 100%. The odds are live prices on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, and change as traders react to polls, fundraising and news. See .
As of November 5, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 100% chance of winning the House in the 2026 midterms, and Republicans a 0% chance. Those odds are the live prices of each party's contract on Kalshi, and they move as traders buy and sell. See the House control market.
What are the odds Democrats win the Senate?
As of November 5, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 100% chance of winning the Senate in the 2026 midterms, and Republicans a 0% chance. Those odds are the live prices of each party's contract on Kalshi, and they move as traders buy and sell. See the Senate control market.
Where do these midterm odds come from?
The odds on this page are live prices on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, where $1.2 billion has traded on 2026 Senate, House and governor markets as of November 5, 2026. Each price is what traders are paying for that outcome right now, and Kalshi publishes how well its prices have matched results. See how Kalshi is regulated and Kalshi's methodology.
How accurate are prediction markets for elections?
Across 2,243,741 resolved Kalshi markets from 2021 to mid-2026, prices were well calibrated: outcomes priced at a given chance happened about that often. Accuracy improves as a market nears resolution, with Brier scores falling from about 0.09 three months out to below 0.02 at close. See Kalshi's calibration study.
How do midterm prediction markets work?
Each market asks a yes-or-no question, such as which party will control the Senate. A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price in cents reads as the percent chance traders give that outcome. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and prices move as traders buy and sell. See Kalshi's guide to prediction markets.
