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SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 52% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 63 days to Election
50DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats48
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 12
DColorado96%DDelaware95%DGeorgia93%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts97%DMinnesota91%DNorth Carolina91%DNew Jersey98%DNew Mexico97%DOregon97%DRhode Island98%DVirginia97%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DNew Hampshire83%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DAlaska63%DMaine70%DMichigan63%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DOhio55%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RIowa62%RNebraska69%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RKansas82%RSouth Carolina87%

Safe Republican

Total 13
RAlabama95%RArkansas93%RFlorida92%RIdaho96%RKentucky93%RLouisiana94%RMississippi93%RMontana90%ROklahoma96%RSouth Dakota96%RTennessee95%RWest Virginia96%RWyoming99%
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

Combos

Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 52
51
$2,319,562 vol10 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

50
49
$707,671 vol15 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Democratic party wins
Republican party wins
$648,361 vol2 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$525,187 vol6 markets
Senate

Closest Senate race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Texas
Texas
Texas
$376,938 vol17 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Paxton defeats Talarico
Talarico defeats Paxton
$293,702 vol2 markets
Senate

Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?

Yes
No
$223,663 vol1 market
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Below 53
53
$80,755 vol7 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$76,042 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

5 or more
Exactly 3
$60,341 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
69%
31%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
63%
37%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
55%
45%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
39%
61%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
91%
9%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
93%
7%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Darline GrahamGraham
13%
87%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
63%
37%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
30%
70%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
9%
91%
Florida
D
Angie NixonNixon
R
Ashley MoodyMoody*
8%
92%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
91%
9%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
19%
81%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
83%
17%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
6%
94%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
6%
94%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
5%
95%
Arkansas
D
Hallie ShoffnerShoffner
R
Tom CottonCotton*
7%
93%
South Dakota
I
Brian BengsBengs
R
Mike RoundsRounds*
5%
95%
1–5 of 35
Showing 5 of 35

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$92,990,490 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.48x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.73x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$475,408 vol
Yes
1.26x
No
4.13x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$29,118 vol
David Morales
1.22x
Brett Smiley
2.19x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$811,594 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.44x
US Elections

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

$31,470 vol
Yes
1.05x
No
1.13x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$381,153 vol
Yes
2.34x
No
1.60x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$46,517 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.44x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.46x
Secretary of State

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

$3,011 vol
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
1.22x
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
3.96x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$15,705 vol
Yes
3.96x
No
1.25x
Other US Elections

Missouri State Senate District 8 winner?

$3,337 vol
Jon Patterson
1.25x
Keri Ingle
2.89x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$18,727 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$4,405 vol
Yes
2.40x
No
1.48x
Attorney General

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

$19,963 vol
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
1.16x
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
4.31x
US Elections

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

$40,290 vol
Secretary of State
1.10x
State Superintendent of Schools
1.10x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,615 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.26x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.80x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$28,902 vol
Proposition 318
2.19x
Proposition 320
1.60x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$16,250 vol
Yes
3.80x
No
1.26x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$10,776 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.28x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.66x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,839 vol
Bo French
1.38x
Jon Rosenthal
2.66x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,186 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.31x
Other US Elections

Ohio State Senate winner?

$1,092 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.08x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
7.85x
Other US Elections

Iowa State House winner?

$507 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.15x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.73x
Other US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$245 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.90x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.76x
Other US Elections

Nevada State Assembly winner?

$2,403 vol
Democratic party
1.02x
Republican party
10.4x