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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
69%
▼ 2

James Talarico

Democratic party
69%
▼ 2
Ken Paxton
Republican party
31%
▲ 2

Ken Paxton

Republican party
31%
▲ 2
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: margin of victory
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Will James Talarico outperform the polls?
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Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin?
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Dallas County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Travis County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Harris County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent

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Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
71% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +2.5margin forecast
Paxton
$67,679,814 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.6%
    48.6%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR46.0%
    46.0%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%