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Big Tech & Business

SpaceMay 12

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

$39,968,148 vol3 more

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

MarketPays outOdds

Before Jan 20, 2029

4.31x

Before Jan 1, 2028

6.74x

Before Jan 1, 2027

23.4x

Before Dec 1, 2026

46.8x

$39,968,148 vol1 more

1 of 3

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

2.29x

Gemini

2.46x

$14,115,839 vol8 markets

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

2.81x

Before Nov 16, 2026

3.40x

$98,548 vol4 markets

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11

Above 170 T tokens

1.15x

Above 172 T tokens

3.96x

$95,144 vol14 markets

Google market share this week

Above 17.8%

1.42x

Above 19.3%

46.8x

$233,781 vol9 markets

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 9

1.25x

Above 10

6.74x

$124,691 vol11 markets

Anthropic share of spend today (Vercel)

Above 40.0%

46.8x

Above 37.1%

18.8x

$34,569 vol9 markets

Best AI this month?

Gemini

1.36x

Claude

3.66x

$227,911 vol7 markets

Pandemic this year?

Yes

13.4x

No

1.06x

$913,068 vol1 market

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases this month?

1 or more

11.7x

2 or more

11.7x

$57,412 vol3 markets

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Oct 1, 2027

2.14x

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.60x

$241,523 vol11 markets

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Claude

5.25x

Gemini

6.74x

$174,099 vol8 markets

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 13, 2026

5.56x

Before Nov 6, 2026

10.4x

$210,971 vol5 markets

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Yes

5.90x

No

1.14x

$322,859 vol1 market

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 5th

Xiaomi

1.02x

Meituan

93.5x

$31,938 vol10 markets

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2028

2.05x

Before 2030

1.52x

$1,113,793 vol3 markets

Measles cases this year?

Above 8000

4.13x

Above 6000

1.22x

$1,367,490 vol5 markets

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

6.29x

Before November 1, 2026

9.41x

$47,878 vol3 markets

Google share of requests today (Vercel)

Above 14.5%

18.8x

Above 13.3%

18.8x

$22,108 vol9 markets

Which countries will report an Ebola case this year?

Central African Republic

2.59x

South Sudan

3.29x

$417,433 vol15 markets

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.05x

$826,681 vol1 market

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

United States

United States

United States

1.60x

China

China

China

3.52x

$1,699 vol5 markets