Important information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, "cases" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.
How many screwworm cases will be reported in the United States this year?
How many screwworm cases will be reported in the United States this year?
Chance
Above 0
48%
▲ 1
Above 0
48%
▲ 1
Above 1
31%
▲ 2
Above 1
31%
▲ 2
Above 2
20%
▲ 3
Above 2
20%
▲ 3
3 more
Market Rules
Above 0
If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, and World Health Organization.
Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 14, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXSCREWWORMCOUNT
EventKXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01
MarketKXSCREWWORMCOUNT-27JAN01-A0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.