Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Chance
Before 2027
14%
▼ 2.6
Before 2027
14%
▼ 2.6
Before 2028
22%
▼ 6
Before 2028
22%
▼ 6
Before Jan 20, 2029
30%
▼ 2
Before Jan 20, 2029
30%
▼ 2
2 more
Market Rules
Before July 2026
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the Executive Branch of the United States government.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 12, 2026 · 4:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXALIENS
EventKXALIENS-27
MarketKXALIENS-27-JUL26
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.