AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year?
Chance
At least 1550 score
40%
At least 1550 score
40%
At least 1600 score
23%
▲ 7
At least 1600 score
23%
▲ 7
At least 1650 score
18%
At least 1650 score
18%
3 more
Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Market Rules
At least 1550 score
If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 6, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout5 minutes after closing
SeriesKXAISPIKE
EventKXAISPIKE-27
MarketKXAISPIKE-27-1550
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.