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Tech and science odds and guides

Release dates for AI models and gadgets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini
1.36x
Claude
4.31x
$18,716,764 vol

OpenAI market share this week

Above 18.9%
1.15x
Above 19.1%
3.80x
$172,423 vol

Best AI this month

Gemini
1.14x
Claude
6.74x
$549,896 vol

OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026

Above 215T tokens
6.74x
Above 218T tokens
93.5x
$54,157 vol

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 31.7%
1.08x
Above 32.4%
93.5x
$222,033 vol

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Necklace
8.56x
Clip-on device for clothing
11.7x
$184,773 vol

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026
15.6x
Before Nov 16, 2026
46.8x
$212,231 vol

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.83x
Before Jan 1, 2027
9.41x
$77,641 vol

Google market share this week

Above 14.9%
1.03x
Above 16.3%
93.5x
$177,578 vol

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI
7.25x
Meta
10.4x
$1,214,184 vol

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic
1.48x
Google
6.29x
$1,282,840 vol

Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?

Before Jan 1, 2029
2.01x
Before Jan 1, 2030
1.34x
$62,511 vol

When will AI score above 185 on Epoch Capabilities Index?

Before Feb 1, 2027
1.55x
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.40x
$4,761 vol

Where will Waymo operate this year?

Las Vegas, NV
1.46x
Denver, CO
1.46x
$634,547 vol

Anthropic market share this week

Above 6.3%
23.4x
Above 4.8%
--
$102,746 vol

Top AI model this month

Gemini 4 Carbon (High)
1.16x
claude-opus-5.5-high
31.2x
$8,261 vol

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.73x
Before Dec 1, 2026
11.7x
$290,548 vol

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) today

Above 68.2%
1.12x
Above 70.8%
4.13x
$4,912 vol

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.67x
Before Jul 1, 2028
1.57x
$360,582 vol

When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027
3.40x
Before Dec 1, 2026
10.4x
$24,837 vol

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Google
Google
1.65x
Meta
Meta
2.73x
$11,991 vol

Astra 6.1+ debut arena score

Above 1430
1.02x
Above 1480
1.02x
$1,242 vol

Google share of requests tomorrow (Vercel)

Above 8.5%
1.57x
Above 8.9%
1.76x
$451 vol

Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam before end of next month?

At least 70%
1.40x
At least 75%
5.90x
$69,408 vol