When will any company achieve AGI?
When will any company achieve AGI?
Chance
Before Jan 1, 2028
45%
Before Jan 1, 2028
45%
Before Apr 1, 2028
51%
Before Apr 1, 2028
51%
Before Jul 1, 2028
56%
▲ 2
Before Jul 1, 2028
56%
▲ 2
10 more
Market Rules
Before Jul 1, 2026
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox Business, MSNBC, NBC, the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, the Associated Press, Financial Times, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Axios, Politico, and The Information.
To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 3, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXAGICO
EventKXAGICO-COMP
MarketKXAGICO-COMP-26Q2
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.