How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
Chance
Above 140
87%
▲ 4
Above 140
87%
▲ 4
Above 160
35%
▼ 7
Above 160
35%
▼ 7
Above 170
31%
▲ 4
Above 170
31%
▲ 4
5 more
Market Rules
Above 120
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Aviation Administration and SpaceX.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 8, 2025 · 10:00pm EST
Market closesJan 1, 2027 · 10:00am EST
Projected payoutJan 1, 2027 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKXSPACEXCOUNT
EventKXSPACEXCOUNT-26B
MarketKXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- SpaceX
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
SpaceX dominated the global space launch market in 2023, accounting for 98 of the 109 US launch attempts and placing 1,937 satellites into orbit, primarily for its Starlink constellation. The company's revenue for 2023 was estimated to be $8.7 billion, with a significant portion coming from Starlink subscriptions and launch services. SpaceX aims to increase its launch frequency, targeting 144 launches in 2024, a significant jump from its 2023 performance.