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Important information: To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named "Mythos." Both conditions must be met by the same model:

Name. The model must be named "Mythos" (e.g., "Claude Mythos 5"). A model that Anthropic describes as "Mythos-class" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., "Claude Fable 5"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.

Public release. A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public. A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.

Accordingly, Anthropic's June 9, 2026 announcement does not satisfy the Payout Criterion: Claude Fable 5 was released to the public but is not named Mythos, and Claude Mythos 5 is currently restricted to a limited set of approved organizations. The market will remain open. If a model named "Mythos" becomes available to the public before the relevant date, the Contract will resolve in accordance with its terms.

Series Image
  1. AI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

4


Chance

Before Dec 1, 2026
1%
▼ 1

Before Dec 1, 2026

1%
▼ 1

Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
▲ 7

Before Jan 1, 2027

8%
▲ 7

Before Jun 15, 2026
No

Before Jun 15, 2026

No

5 more

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When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Dec 1, 2026

Odds
2% chance
Max payout
Nov 30, 2026
$0
$2,187,630 vol

AI Digest · Anthropic keeps new Mythos model for vetted organizations

Not advice
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