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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have an 85% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 59 days to Election
228DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats198
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 197
AL-07
D96%
AZ-03
D99%
AZ-04
D92%
AZ-07
D95%
CA-01
D96%
CA-02
D99%
CA-03
D95%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D95%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D98%
CA-09
D95%
CA-10
D96%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D94%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D95%
CA-16
D99%
CA-17
D98%
CA-18
D94%
CA-19
D99%
CA-21
D91%
CA-22
D90%
CA-24
D97%
CA-25
D98%
CA-26
D96%
CA-27
D93%
CA-28
D96%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D98%
CA-31
D96%
CA-32
D97%
CA-33
D93%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D97%
CA-36
D93%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D98%
CA-39
D98%
CA-41
D96%
CA-42
D98%
CA-43
D93%
CA-44
D97%
CA-45
D93%
CA-47
D94%
CA-49
D95%
CA-50
D95%
CA-51
D97%
CO-01
D97%
CO-02
D99%
CO-06
D96%
CO-07
D97%
CT-01
D94%
CT-02
D96%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D99%
CT-05
D94%
DE-AL
D97%
FL-10
D98%
FL-20
D96%
FL-23
D93%
FL-24
D96%
GA-02
D95%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D95%
GA-06
D97%
GA-13
D96%
HI-01
D97%
HI-02
D97%
IL-01
D94%
IL-02
D97%
IL-03
D97%
IL-04
D91%
IL-05
D97%
IL-06
D99%
IL-07
D97%
IL-08
D94%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D97%
IL-11
D93%
IL-13
D96%
IL-14
D98%
IL-17
D90%
IN-01
D94%
IN-07
D98%
KS-03
D98%
KY-03
D98%
LA-02
D99%
MA-01
D97%
MA-02
D97%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D97%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D93%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D94%
MA-09
D97%
MD-02
D95%
MD-03
D98%
MD-04
D91%
MD-05
D91%
MD-06
D92%
MD-07
D96%
MD-08
D96%
ME-01
D94%
MI-03
D92%
MI-06
D98%
MI-08
D93%
MI-11
D97%
MI-12
D98%
MI-13
D99%
MN-02
D94%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D96%
MN-05
D98%
MO-01
D99%
MS-02
D94%
NC-02
D96%
NC-04
D99%
NC-12
D95%
NH-02
D95%
NJ-01
D97%
NJ-03
D97%
NJ-05
D95%
NJ-06
D96%
NJ-08
D96%
NJ-10
D98%
NJ-11
D96%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D96%
NM-02
D90%
NM-03
D94%
NV-01
D90%
NV-03
D90%
NV-04
D90%
NY-03
D91%
NY-05
D92%
NY-06
D98%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D94%
NY-09
D98%
NY-10
D98%
NY-12
D99%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D99%
NY-15
D99%
NY-16
D98%
NY-18
D94%
NY-19
D92%
NY-20
D98%
NY-22
D94%
NY-25
D96%
NY-26
D97%
OH-03
D98%
OH-11
D94%
OH-13
D94%
OR-01
D90%
OR-03
D97%
OR-04
D97%
OR-05
D98%
OR-06
D97%
PA-02
D99%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D94%
PA-05
D98%
PA-06
D99%
PA-12
D96%
PA-17
D91%
RI-01
D99%
RI-02
D95%
SC-06
D92%
TX-07
D95%
TX-16
D97%
TX-18
D99%
TX-20
D96%
TX-29
D95%
TX-30
D98%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D92%
UT-01
D98%
VA-03
D95%
VA-04
D97%
VA-07
D95%
VA-08
D98%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D98%
VT-AL
D96%
WA-01
D97%
WA-02
D99%
WA-06
D97%
WA-07
D97%
WA-08
D94%
WA-09
D94%
WA-10
D97%
WI-02
D95%
WI-04
D98%

Likely Democratic

Total 21
AZ-06
D85%
CA-46
D87%
CA-48
D88%
CA-52
D79%
CO-08
D80%
IA-01
D77%
IA-03
D78%
MO-05
D77%
NE-02
D89%
NH-01
D89%
NJ-07
D83%
NJ-09
D89%
NY-04
D85%
OH-01
D82%
OH-07
D80%
PA-07
D77%
PA-10
D80%
TX-28
D85%
TX-34
D78%
VA-02
D82%
WA-03
D86%

Lean Democratic

Total 10
AZ-01
D70%
FL-14
D62%
FL-25
D69%
MI-10
D65%
NC-11
D65%
NY-17
D69%
OH-09
D66%
PA-08
D66%
TX-35
D62%
WI-03
D72%

Toss-up

Total 9Dem 4Rep 5
FL-22
R59%
IA-02
R54%
ME-02
R60%
MI-04
R51%
MI-07
D57%
NC-01
D59%
PA-01
R54%
TX-15
D54%
VA-01
D55%

Lean Republican

Total 15
AZ-02
R72%
CO-03
R66%
CO-04
R68%
FL-07
R70%
FL-09
R65%
FL-13
R72%
KY-06
R73%
MN-01
R71%
MO-02
R69%
MT-01
R64%
NY-01
R75%
NY-21
R74%
SC-01
R73%
TX-23
R74%
WI-01
R67%

Likely Republican

Total 36
AK-AL
R80%
AL-02
R78%
AR-02
R89%
CO-05
R76%
FL-02
R89%
FL-04
R89%
FL-11
R84%
FL-12
R88%
FL-16
R82%
FL-21
R89%
FL-27
R82%
GA-12
R86%
IN-05
R83%
MN-06
R89%
MN-08
R84%
NC-03
R88%
NC-07
R86%
NC-09
R79%
NC-13
R87%
NC-14
R85%
NE-01
R87%
NJ-02
R83%
NV-02
R79%
NY-02
R87%
OH-08
R89%
OH-10
R84%
OH-15
R79%
OK-01
R87%
OK-05
R87%
TX-02
R89%
TX-09
R81%
TX-24
R89%
TX-32
R81%
VA-05
R85%
WA-05
R80%
WI-08
R89%

Safe Republican

Total 147
AL-01
R97%
AL-03
R96%
AL-04
R94%
AL-05
R95%
AL-06
R97%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R95%
AR-04
R96%
AZ-05
R92%
AZ-08
R90%
AZ-09
R92%
CA-05
R95%
CA-20
R96%
CA-23
R91%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R99%
FL-03
R95%
FL-05
R90%
FL-06
R97%
FL-08
R95%
FL-15
R91%
FL-17
R90%
FL-18
R90%
FL-19
R91%
FL-26
R90%
FL-28
R91%
GA-01
R92%
GA-03
R97%
GA-07
R93%
GA-08
R95%
GA-09
R96%
GA-10
R96%
GA-11
R93%
GA-14
R97%
IA-04
R95%
ID-01
R96%
ID-02
R97%
IL-12
R96%
IL-15
R94%
IL-16
R91%
IN-02
R97%
IN-03
R97%
IN-04
R95%
IN-06
R97%
IN-08
R97%
IN-09
R94%
KS-01
R97%
KS-02
R90%
KS-04
R96%
KY-01
R98%
KY-02
R94%
KY-04
R91%
KY-05
R97%
LA-01
R97%
LA-03
R97%
LA-04
R97%
LA-05
R97%
LA-06
R93%
MD-01
R93%
MI-01
R91%
MI-02
R97%
MI-05
R92%
MI-09
R97%
MN-07
R97%
MO-03
R94%
MO-04
R94%
MO-06
R97%
MO-07
R98%
MO-08
R98%
MS-01
R96%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R97%
MT-02
R97%
NC-05
R90%
NC-06
R90%
NC-08
R90%
NC-10
R90%
ND-AL
R94%
NE-03
R98%
NJ-04
R95%
NY-11
R94%
NY-23
R90%
NY-24
R94%
OH-02
R97%
OH-04
R96%
OH-05
R95%
OH-06
R95%
OH-12
R97%
OH-14
R93%
OK-02
R96%
OK-03
R97%
OK-04
R96%
OR-02
R98%
PA-09
R97%
PA-11
R99%
PA-13
R97%
PA-14
R97%
PA-15
R95%
PA-16
R92%
SC-02
R90%
SC-03
R98%
SC-04
R95%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R95%
SD-AL
R96%
TN-01
R96%
TN-02
R98%
TN-03
R97%
TN-04
R94%
TN-05
R91%
TN-06
R95%
TN-07
R93%
TN-08
R90%
TN-09
R92%
TX-01
R97%
TX-03
R93%
TX-04
R94%
TX-05
R97%
TX-06
R90%
TX-08
R95%
TX-10
R90%
TX-11
R97%
TX-12
R90%
TX-13
R97%
TX-14
R94%
TX-17
R97%
TX-19
R95%
TX-21
R93%
TX-22
R91%
TX-25
R94%
TX-26
R94%
TX-27
R92%
TX-31
R94%
TX-36
R92%
TX-38
R94%
UT-02
R96%
UT-03
R96%
UT-04
R95%
VA-06
R96%
VA-09
R96%
WA-04
R92%
WI-05
R96%
WI-06
R92%
WI-07
R95%
WV-01
R95%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R93%

Projected flip races

UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
98%
2%
CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
92%
8%
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
98%
2%
CA-22
D
Randy VillegasVillegas
R
David ValadaoValadao*
89%
11%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
89%
11%

Combos

House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
203-207
$2,653,633 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

230-233
226-229
$1,630,085 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
$1,446,710 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

7
8
$204,234 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

8
9
$59,071 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

9
11
$55,508 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$40,086 vol4 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

11
12
$37,353 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?

20
19
$30,609 vol10 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

5
4
$21,969 vol7 markets

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$93,367,207 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.50x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.73x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$530,276 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$42,145 vol
David Morales
1.42x
Brett Smiley
2.73x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$5,963 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.60x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$856,838 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.40x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$19,326 vol
Yes
3.40x
No
1.34x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$25,716 vol
Amendment 2
1.62x
Amendment 4
1.22x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$388,006 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.65x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$6,760 vol
Proposition 42
2.01x
Proposition 37
1.60x
US Elections

Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?

$17,674 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.14x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$10,756 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.16x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
4.73x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)

$2,708 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.40x
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
2.89x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State House winner?

$4,686 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.13x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.25x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,519 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.10x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
8.56x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$9,143 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.73x
Ballot Measure 3
1.14x
Attorney General

Ohio Attorney General winner?

$2,166 vol
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
Keith Faber
1.10x
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
John Kulewicz
5.90x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$19,208 vol
Yes
1.73x
No
2.09x
Attorney General

Florida Attorney General winner?

$1,144 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.16x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
4.51x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$11,385 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.31x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
3.66x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$2,242 vol
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.73x
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.93x
US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$3,802 vol
Karen Bass, ≥2%
1.93x
Karen Bass, ≥4%
2.34x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,924 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.22x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.66x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$46,853 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.44x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.52x
Attorney General

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

$19,983 vol
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
Josh Kaul
1.16x
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
Eric Toney
4.51x
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
54%
46%
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Max MillerMiller*
78%
22%
PA-07
D
Bob BrooksBrooks
R
Ryan MackenzieMackenzie*
76%
24%
FL-22
D
Pia DandiyaDandiya
R
Casey AskarAskar
44%
56%
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
28%
72%
WI-03
D
Rebecca CookeCooke
R
Derrick Van OrdenOrden*
71%
29%
AL-02
D
Shomari FiguresFigures*
R
Rhett MarquesMarques
20%
80%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
89%
11%
FL-14
D
Kathy CastorCastor*
R
Mike BeltranBeltran
62%
38%
VA-02
D
Elaine LuriaLuria
R
Jen KiggansKiggans*
83%
17%
MO-05
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
79%
21%
CA-22
D
Randy VillegasVillegas
R
David ValadaoValadao*
89%
11%
NC-01
D
Don DavisDavis*
R
Laurie BuckhoutBuckhout
58%
42%
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
82%
18%
NY-17
D
Cait ConleyConley
R
Mike LawlerLawler*
68%
32%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
26%
74%
NY-21
D
Blake GendebienGendebien
R
Anthony ConstantinoConstantino
27%
73%
VA-06
D
Beth MacyMacy
R
Ben ClineCline*
8%
92%
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
17%
83%
CA-06
D
Richard PanPan
I
Kevin KileyKiley
93%
7%
1–5 of 435
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