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2026 Midterms

International elections

International elections

Senate House Governor Balance of Power

LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 91% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 38 days to Election

231DemocratsDem seats

218 to win

218to win

RepublicansRep seats200

212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats

Timeline

Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 201

Likely Democratic

Total 19

Lean Democratic

Total 11

Toss-up

Total 4Dem 2Rep 2

Lean Republican

Total 18

Likely Republican

Total 38

Safe Republican

Total 144

More markets

Projected flip races

D

Ben McAdamsMcAdams

R

Riley OwenOwen

94%

6%

D

Linda SánchezSánchez

R

Mitch ClemmonsClemmons

98%

2%

D

Mike McGuireMcGuire

R

James GallagherGallagher*

92%

8%

D

Denise PowellPowell

R

Brinker HardingHarding

94%

6%

D

Marni von WilpertWilpert

R

Jim DesmondDesmond

89%

11%

D

Bobby PulidoPulido

R

Monica De La CruzCruz*

73%

27%

D

Bob BrooksBrooks

R

Ryan MackenzieMackenzie*

83%

17%

D

Sam ForstagForstag

R

Aaron FlintFlint

29%

71%

D

Kathy CastorCastor*

R

Mike BeltranBeltran

68%

32%

D

Jared MoskowitzMoskowitz

R

Scott SingerSinger

73%

27%

D

Christina BohannanBohannan

R

Mariannette Miller-MeeksMiller-Meeks*

83%

17%

D

Jake JohnsonJohnson

R

Brad FinstadFinstad*

24%

76%

D

Rebecca BennettBennett

R

Thomas Kean Jr.Kean*

85%

15%

D

Bob HarvieHarvie

R

Brian FitzpatrickFitzpatrick*

38%

62%

D

Henry CuellarCuellar*

R

Tano TijerinaTijerina

88%

12%

D

Brian PoindexterPoindexter

R

Max MillerMiller*

79%

21%

D

Democratic partyDemocrat*

R

Republican partyRepublican

96%

4%

D

Chris GallantGallant

R

Nick LaLotaLaLota*

18%

82%

D

Cait ConleyConley

R

Mike LawlerLawler*

64%

36%

D

Rebecca CookeCooke

R

Derrick Van OrdenOrden*

71%

29%

D

Shomari FiguresFigures*

R

Rhett MarquesMarques

30%

70%

D

Marie Gluesenkamp PerezPerez*

R

John BraunBraun

89%

11%

D

Pia DandiyaDandiya

R

Casey AskarAskar

52%

48%

D

Randy VillegasVillegas

R

David ValadaoValadao*

88%

12%

D

Katy Padilla StoutStout

R

Brandon HerreraHerrera*

39%

61%

1–5 of 435

Showing 5 of 435

Combos

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193

198-202

$3,288,344 vol11 markets

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 249

230-233

$2,173,366 vol12 markets

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%

Democrats, 10 to 12%

$1,761,914 vol10 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

7

8

$235,953 vol7 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

8

9

$63,563 vol7 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

11

9

$58,933 vol8 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12

11

$47,113 vol8 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1

2

$42,414 vol4 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?

20

19

$31,527 vol10 markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

5

4

$27,923 vol7 markets

140 events

MarketPays outOdds

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$97,361,208 vol

Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman

1.67x

Karen Bass

Karen Bass

Karen Bass

2.29x

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,094,310 vol

Yes

3.29x

No

1.36x

Blue wave this year?

$733,720 vol

Yes

1.16x

No

5.90x

Blue tsunami this year?

$553,719 vol

Yes

1.93x

No

1.90x

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$9,502 vol

No, ≥10%

2.09x

No, ≥13%

2.66x

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)

$10,848 vol

Yes, ≥7%

5.56x

Yes, ≥1%

2.81x

Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$102,601 vol

Jon Rosenthal

Jon Rosenthal

Jon Rosenthal

1.86x

Bo French

Bo French

Bo French

2.01x

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$11,849 vol

Yes

4.31x

No

1.20x

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$18,476 vol

Yes

2.98x

No

1.31x

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$31,222 vol

Proposition 318

1.83x

Proposition 320

1.70x

Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$13,047 vol

Mayes Middleton

Mayes Middleton

Mayes Middleton

1.28x

Nathan Johnson

Nathan Johnson

Nathan Johnson

3.66x

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?

$23,591 vol

At least 1

2.98x

At least 3

7.25x

Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$22,215 vol

Keith Ellison

Keith Ellison

Keith Ellison

1.44x

Ronald J. Schutz

Ronald J. Schutz

Ronald J. Schutz

2.73x

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$22,333 vol

Yes

1.46x

No

2.81x

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$27,272 vol

Yes

2.59x

No

1.48x

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$3,203 vol

Question 5

2.40x

Question 3

2.52x

Attorney General

Iowa Attorney General winner?

$23,399 vol

Brenna Bird

Brenna Bird

Brenna Bird

1.40x

Nate Willems

Nate Willems

Nate Willems

2.59x

Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$20,606 vol

Democratic party

Democratic party

Democratic party

1.14x

Republican party

Republican party

Republican party

4.13x

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$51,273 vol

Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra

1.52x

Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra

2.40x

Other US Elections

North Carolina Supreme Court winner?

$676 vol

Anita Earls

Anita Earls

Anita Earls

1.19x

Sarah Stevens

Sarah Stevens

Sarah Stevens

3.66x

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$21,292 vol

Yes

2.73x

No

1.44x

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$5,091 vol

Karen Bass, ≥2%

2.34x

Karen Bass, ≥4%

3.66x

Secretary of State

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

$4,114 vol

Adrian Fontes

Adrian Fontes

Adrian Fontes

1.14x

Alexander Kolodin

Alexander Kolodin

Alexander Kolodin

4.73x

Secretary of State

Michigan Secretary of State winner?

$16,015 vol

Garlin Gilchrist

1.07x

Anthony Forlini

5.90x