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Referendums

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
Key races

Texas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Talarico61%
Paxton39%
Projected marginD +1.6

Maine Senate winner?

Nov 3
Jackson57%
Collins43%
Projected marginD +1.3

Michigan Senate winner?

Nov 3
El-Sayed68%
Rogers32%
Projected marginD +2.4

Ohio Senate winner?

Nov 3
Brown62%
Husted38%
Projected marginD +2.0

Iowa Senate winner?

Nov 3
Turek44%
Hinson56%
Projected marginR +1.1

Kansas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Hamilton36%
Marshall64%

Alaska Senate winner?

Nov 4
Democrat74%
Republican26%

Ohio Governor winner?

Nov 3
Acton71%
Ramaswamy29%
Projected marginD +3.2

Nebraska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Osborn26%
Ricketts74%
Projected marginR +3.6

Georgia Governor winner?

Nov 3
Bottoms48%
Jackson52%
Projected marginR +0.5

Nevada Governor winner?

Nov 3
Ford53%
Lombardo47%
Projected marginD +0.1

MT-01 House winner?

Nov 3
Forstag30%
Flint70%
Projected marginR +2.3
SenateHouseGovernorStatesBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast

Democrats have a 90% chance to control the House

18 days to Election
230DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats200
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe Democratic
Total 206
AL-07
D99%
AZ-03
D97%
AZ-04
D95%
AZ-07
D96%
CA-01
D94%
CA-02
D98%
CA-03
D96%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D93%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D95%
CA-09
D97%
CA-10
D98%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D95%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D98%
CA-16
D95%
CA-17
D99%
CA-18
D95%
CA-19
D98%
CA-21
D95%
CA-24
D98%
CA-25
D96%
CA-26
D96%
CA-27
D96%
CA-28
D98%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D98%
CA-31
D95%
CA-32
D99%
CA-33
D98%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D95%
CA-36
D94%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D99%
CA-39
D96%
CA-41
D96%
CA-42
D96%
CA-43
D98%
CA-44
D94%
CA-45
D94%
CA-46
D98%
CA-47
D97%
CA-48
D92%
CA-49
D96%
CA-50
D93%
CA-51
D98%
CA-52
D97%
CO-01
D98%
CO-02
D96%
CO-06
D99%
CO-07
D98%
CT-01
D97%
CT-02
D99%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D99%
CT-05
D95%
DE-AL
D100%
FL-10
D100%
FL-20
D98%
FL-23
D96%
FL-24
D99%
GA-02
D96%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D100%
GA-06
D98%
GA-13
D97%
HI-01
D96%
HI-02
D97%
IA-01
D91%
IL-01
D95%
IL-02
D95%
IL-03
D92%
IL-04
D96%
IL-05
D96%
IL-06
D95%
IL-07
D96%
IL-08
D95%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D96%
IL-11
D97%
IL-13
D93%
IL-14
D97%
IL-17
D98%
IN-01
D99%
IN-07
D98%
KS-03
D97%
KY-03
D94%
LA-02
D98%
MA-01
D94%
MA-02
D98%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D91%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D97%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D95%
MA-09
D94%
MD-02
D96%
MD-03
D94%
MD-04
D93%
MD-05
D92%
MD-06
D97%
MD-07
D95%
MD-08
D100%
ME-01
D98%
MI-03
D94%
MI-06
D99%
MI-08
D96%
MI-11
D98%
MI-12
D96%
MI-13
D96%
MN-02
D93%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D95%
MN-05
D94%
MO-01
D97%
MO-05
D95%
MS-02
D98%
NC-02
D99%
NC-04
D97%
NC-12
D96%
NE-02
D94%
NH-01
D95%
NH-02
D96%
NJ-01
D97%
NJ-03
D97%
NJ-05
D98%
NJ-06
D98%
NJ-07
D91%
NJ-08
D99%
NJ-09
D97%
NJ-10
D100%
NJ-11
D94%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D95%
NM-02
D92%
NM-03
D96%
NV-01
D94%
NV-03
D90%
NV-04
D95%
NY-03
D91%
NY-04
D93%
NY-05
D97%
NY-06
D94%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D95%
NY-09
D96%
NY-10
D100%
NY-12
D96%
NY-14
D97%
NY-15
D99%
NY-18
D98%
NY-19
D97%
NY-20
D98%
NY-22
D96%
NY-25
D99%
NY-26
D95%
OH-01
D91%
OH-03
D99%
OH-11
D96%
OH-13
D97%
OR-01
D96%
OR-03
D98%
OR-04
D94%
OR-05
D96%
OR-06
D98%
PA-02
D97%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D95%
PA-05
D99%
PA-06
D94%
PA-12
D99%
PA-17
D97%
RI-01
D99%
RI-02
D95%
SC-06
D98%
TX-07
D97%
TX-16
D98%
TX-18
D97%
TX-20
D97%
TX-28
D91%
TX-29
D94%
TX-30
D97%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D99%
UT-01
D98%
VA-03
D94%
VA-04
D98%
VA-07
D98%
VA-08
D97%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D96%
VT-AL
D95%
WA-01
D97%
WA-02
D98%
WA-03
D91%
WA-06
D95%
WA-07
D98%
WA-08
D93%
WA-09
D96%
WA-10
D94%
WI-02
D96%
WI-04
D98%
Likely Democratic
Total 16
AZ-01
D80%
AZ-06
D83%
CA-22
D89%
CO-08
D84%
FL-25
D81%
IA-03
D81%
NC-11
D78%
NY-13
D75%
NY-16
D76%
OH-07
D80%
PA-07
D87%
PA-10
D81%
TX-15
D83%
TX-34
D85%
VA-02
D86%
WI-03
D75%
Lean Democratic
Total 8
FL-14
D69%
MI-07
D62%
MI-10
D63%
NC-01
D64%
NY-17
D61%
OH-09
D72%
PA-08
D74%
TX-35
D61%
Toss-up
Total 4Dem 3Rep 1
FL-22
D55%
IA-02
D59%
MI-04
R53%
VA-01
D56%
Lean Republican
Total 17
AL-02
R73%
CO-03
R71%
CO-04
R75%
FL-07
R67%
FL-09
R71%
FL-13
R75%
FL-27
R66%
KY-06
R70%
ME-02
R65%
MT-01
R69%
NV-02
R74%
OH-15
R74%
PA-01
R67%
SC-01
R73%
TX-23
R73%
VA-05
R74%
WI-01
R61%
Likely Republican
Total 34
AK-AL
R87%
AR-02
R82%
AZ-02
R76%
AZ-08
R88%
CO-05
R78%
FL-04
R87%
FL-11
R88%
FL-16
R83%
IN-05
R82%
KS-02
R88%
MD-01
R87%
MI-01
R88%
MN-01
R76%
MN-08
R89%
MO-02
R77%
NC-03
R85%
NC-05
R89%
NC-07
R86%
NC-09
R84%
NC-13
R86%
NC-14
R90%
NE-01
R83%
NJ-02
R82%
NY-01
R87%
NY-02
R87%
NY-21
R76%
OH-10
R84%
OK-05
R88%
SC-02
R88%
TN-09
R86%
TX-09
R85%
TX-32
R87%
WA-05
R87%
WI-08
R88%
Safe Republican
Total 149
AL-01
R98%
AL-03
R99%
AL-04
R99%
AL-05
R95%
AL-06
R98%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R95%
AR-04
R98%
AZ-05
R90%
AZ-09
R97%
CA-05
R93%
CA-20
R98%
CA-23
R98%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R97%
FL-02
R93%
FL-03
R95%
FL-05
R92%
FL-06
R95%
FL-08
R96%
FL-12
R92%
FL-15
R93%
FL-17
R96%
FL-18
R94%
FL-19
R94%
FL-21
R91%
FL-26
R91%
FL-28
R92%
GA-01
R92%
GA-03
R98%
GA-07
R94%
GA-08
R98%
GA-09
R96%
GA-10
R97%
GA-11
R90%
GA-12
R91%
GA-14
R96%
IA-04
R97%
ID-01
R99%
ID-02
R98%
IL-12
R97%
IL-15
R95%
IL-16
R95%
IN-02
R96%
IN-03
R97%
IN-04
R95%
IN-06
R96%
IN-08
R92%
IN-09
R97%
KS-01
R94%
KS-04
R94%
KY-01
R98%
KY-02
R98%
KY-04
R96%
KY-05
R98%
LA-01
R97%
LA-03
R98%
LA-04
R95%
LA-05
R95%
LA-06
R93%
MI-02
R97%
MI-05
R93%
MI-09
R96%
MN-06
R94%
MN-07
R94%
MO-03
R96%
MO-04
R97%
MO-06
R96%
MO-07
R95%
MO-08
R98%
MS-01
R95%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R96%
MT-02
R96%
NC-06
R92%
NC-08
R95%
NC-10
R96%
ND-AL
R97%
NE-03
R96%
NJ-04
R97%
NY-11
R90%
NY-23
R96%
NY-24
R98%
OH-02
R97%
OH-04
R96%
OH-05
R94%
OH-06
R96%
OH-08
R91%
OH-12
R97%
OH-14
R94%
OK-01
R95%
OK-02
R94%
OK-03
R98%
OK-04
R96%
OR-02
R97%
PA-09
R95%
PA-11
R95%
PA-13
R93%
PA-14
R93%
PA-15
R97%
PA-16
R95%
SC-03
R97%
SC-04
R97%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R95%
SD-AL
R96%
TN-01
R96%
TN-02
R90%
TN-03
R98%
TN-04
R96%
TN-05
R95%
TN-06
R94%
TN-07
R98%
TN-08
R96%
TX-01
R97%
TX-02
R92%
TX-03
R94%
TX-04
R96%
TX-05
R96%
TX-06
R97%
TX-08
R97%
TX-10
R93%
TX-11
R97%
TX-12
R95%
TX-13
R97%
TX-14
R96%
TX-17
R97%
TX-19
R94%
TX-21
R97%
TX-22
R94%
TX-24
R93%
TX-25
R96%
TX-26
R98%
TX-27
R95%
TX-31
R96%
TX-36
R96%
TX-38
R97%
UT-02
R96%
UT-03
R98%
UT-04
R97%
VA-06
R93%
VA-09
R98%
WA-04
R93%
WI-05
R96%
WI-06
R92%
WI-07
R95%
WV-01
R98%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R93%
Projected flip races
UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
98%
Projected marginD +32.3
2%
Projected marginD +32.3
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
98%
Projected marginD +25.0
2%
Projected marginD +25.0
CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
96%
Projected marginD +15.8
4%
Projected marginD +15.8
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
94%
Projected marginD +9.5
6%
Projected marginD +9.5
CA-48
D
Marni von WilpertWilpert
R
Jim DesmondDesmond
93%
Projected marginD +11.4
7%
Projected marginD +11.4
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
84%
Projected marginD +5.3
16%
Projected marginD +5.3
MT-01
D
Sam ForstagForstag
R
Aaron FlintFlint
30%
Projected marginR +2.3
70%
Projected marginR +2.3
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
24%
Projected marginR +3.2
76%
Projected marginR +3.2
PA-07
D
Bob BrooksBrooks
R
Ryan MackenzieMackenzie*
87%
Projected marginD +7.3
13%
Projected marginD +7.3
IA-01
D
Christina BohannanBohannan
R
Mariannette Miller-MeeksMiller-Meeks*
91%
Projected marginD +9.7
9%
Projected marginD +9.7
FL-25
D
Jared MoskowitzMoskowitz
R
Scott SingerSinger
80%
Projected marginD +4.9
20%
Projected marginD +4.9
NY-17
D
Cait ConleyConley
R
Mike LawlerLawler*
60%
Projected marginD +0.3
40%
Projected marginD +0.3
FL-14
D
Kathy CastorCastor*
R
Mike BeltranBeltran
67%
Projected marginD +4.9
33%
Projected marginD +4.9
MN-05
D
Ilhan OmarOmar*
R
John NagelNagel
96%
Projected marginD +59.4
4%
Projected marginD +59.4
VA-01
D
Shannon TaylorTaylor
R
Rob WittmanWittman*
56%
Projected marginD +0.6
44%
Projected marginD +0.6
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
29%
Projected marginR +3.6
71%
Projected marginR +3.6
PA-01
D
Bob HarvieHarvie
R
Brian FitzpatrickFitzpatrick*
36%
Projected marginR +2.6
64%
Projected marginR +2.6
NC-11
D
Jamie AgerAger
R
Jennifer BalkcomBalkcom*
76%
Projected marginD +4.7
24%
Projected marginD +4.7
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
91%
Projected marginD +13.7
9%
Projected marginD +13.7
VA-02
D
Elaine LuriaLuria
R
Jen KiggansKiggans*
85%
Projected marginD +8.3
15%
Projected marginD +8.3
NJ-07
D
Rebecca BennettBennett
R
Thomas Kean Jr.Kean*
91%
Projected marginD +8.3
9%
Projected marginD +8.3
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
27%
73%
TX-35
D
Johnny C. GarciaGarcia
R
Carlos De La CruzCruz
61%
Projected marginD +2.7
39%
Projected marginD +2.7
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Max MillerMiller*
80%
Projected marginD +6.1
20%
Projected marginD +6.1
1–5 of 435
Showing 5 of 435
Combos
House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
193-197
$4,207,121 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

234-237
230-233
$3,059,670 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
$2,634,991 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

8
7
$241,756 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

9
8
$65,245 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

11
10
$61,403 vol8 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12
11
$49,670 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$43,959 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New Jersey?

10
Above 10
$39,760 vol5 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?

20
19
$36,020 vol10 markets
More markets
161 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$102,724,694 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.79x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
2.05x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$1,665,771 vol
Yes
1.25x
No
4.31x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$349,939 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$44,242 vol
Yes
4.73x
No
1.22x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$694,683 vol
Yes
2.05x
No
1.79x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$44,932 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.19x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
5.56x
Attorney General

Florida Attorney General winner?

$21,661 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.26x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
3.96x
US Elections

New Hampshire State House winner?

$8,017 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.20x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.98x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,639,056 vol
Yes
3.80x
No
1.29x
US Elections

North Carolina State House winner?

$7,065 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.38x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.83x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$93,090 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.33x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.40x
US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$11,886 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.44x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.66x
US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$11,552 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.23x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.25x
US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$15,086 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.93x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.52x
US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$15,587 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.13x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
8.56x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$30,997 vol
Yes
1.48x
No
2.52x
US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$4,233 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.38x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.18x
US Elections

Michigan State House winner?

$4,853 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.31x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.13x
Attorney General

Colorado Attorney General winner?

$34,108 vol
Jena Griswold
Jena Griswold
Jena Griswold
1.07x
Michael Allen
Michael Allen
Michael Allen
23.4x
US Elections

Maine State Senate winner?

$16,444 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.07x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
13.4x
Senate

Midterms: Blue trickle?

$21,759 vol
Yes
1.07x
No
10.4x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$31,993 vol
Amendment 82
1.90x
Proposition NN
1.73x
US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$3,316 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.34x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.52x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$8,395 vol
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.90x
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
2.01x