2026 Midterms

Projected flip races

CA-01

Mike McGuire

James Gallagher*

96%

UT-01

Ben McAdams

Riley Owen

94%

TN-06

Mike Croley

Johnny Garrett

49%

51%

CA-41

Linda Sánchez

Mitch Clemmons

97%

MI-04

Sean McCann

Bill Huizenga*

58%

42%

TX-15

Bobby Pulido

Monica De La Cruz*

52%

48%

OH-07

Brian Poindexter

Max Miller*

77%

23%

AL-02

Shomari Figures*

Rhett Marques

24%

76%

FL-22

Democratic party

Republican party

34%

66%

WI-03

Rebecca Cooke

Derrick Van Orden*

69%

31%

MN-01

Jake Johnson

Brad Finstad*

30%

70%

NC-01

Don Davis*

Laurie Buckhout

57%

43%

CA-22

Randy Villegas

David Valadao*

83%

17%

VA-06

Beth Macy

Ben Cline*

92%

TX-28

Henry Cuellar*

Tano Tijerina

81%

19%

CA-06

Richard Pan

Kevin Kiley

98%

VA-05

Tom Perriello

John McGuire*

15%

85%

NE-02

Denise Powell

Brinker Harding

78%

22%

SC-06

Jim Clyburn*

John Peterson

95%

NY-21

Blake Gendebien

Anthony Constantino

28%

72%

TX-23

Katy Padilla Stout

Brandon Herrera*

34%

66%

TX-07

Lizzie Fletcher*

Alexander Hale

93%

LA-06

Democratic party*

Republican party

92%

FL-10

Democratic party*

Republican party

97%

OR-06

Andrea Salinas*

David Russ

97%

More markets

128 events

MarketPays outOdds

Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,757,692 vol

Karen Bass

1.46x

Nithya Raman

2.81x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$15,586 vol

Proposition 144

1.76x

Proposition 320

1.70x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$14,791 vol

Economic Development Districts Amendment

1.73x

Water Infrastructure Bond Question

1.34x

US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$689,133 vol

Yes

2.66x

1.50x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$10,980 vol

Amendment 3

1.79x

Amendment 2

1.46x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

$11,486 vol

Property Tax Millage

1.90x

Retirement Debt Funding

1.70x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Florida?

$8,609 vol

Amendment 2

1.65x

Amendment 1

1.42x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?

$8,284 vol

Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment

1.36x

9-1-1 Fund Amendment

1.23x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?

$10,951 vol

Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond

1.20x

Higher Education Bond

1.14x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

$4,173 vol

Amendment 2

1.19x

Amendment 3

1.13x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?

$4,084 vol

Public Question 1

1.13x

Public Question 2

1.10x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$6,123 vol

Ballot Measure 2

2.89x

Ballot Measure 3

1.12x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Maryland?

$3,037 vol

Question 3

1.34x

Question 1

1.29x

Senate

Blue wave this year?

$368,992 vol

Yes

1.28x

3.96x

US Elections

Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?

$2,072 vol

Yes

1.23x

3.96x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$11,136 vol

Initiative #109

1.70x

Initiative #95

2.66x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$2,859 vol

Proposal 3

1.29x

Proposal 4

1.14x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$788 vol

Question 5

2.52x

Question 3

2.89x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

$1,673 vol

Legislative Salaries Amendment

2.52x

School Election Dates Amendment

1.36x

Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$340,057 vol

Yes

2.40x

1.60x

US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$3,491 vol

Karen Bass, ≥2%

1.83x

Karen Bass, ≥4%

2.29x

Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$19,637 vol

Democratic party

1.09x

Republican party

3.52x

US Elections

Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?

$2,225 vol

Yes

1.09x

9.41x

US Elections

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$4,847 vol

Yes

1.10x

8.56x

128 events

MarketPays outOdds

Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,757,692 vol

Karen Bass

1.46x

Nithya Raman

2.81x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$15,586 vol

Proposition 144

1.76x

Proposition 320

1.70x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$14,791 vol

Economic Development Districts Amendment

1.73x

Water Infrastructure Bond Question

1.34x

US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$689,133 vol

Yes

2.66x

1.50x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$10,980 vol

Amendment 3

1.79x

Amendment 2

1.46x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

$11,486 vol

Property Tax Millage

1.90x

Retirement Debt Funding

1.70x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Florida?

$8,609 vol

Amendment 2

1.65x

Amendment 1

1.42x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?

$8,284 vol

Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment

1.36x

9-1-1 Fund Amendment

1.23x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?

$10,951 vol

Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond

1.20x

Higher Education Bond

1.14x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

$4,173 vol

Amendment 2

1.19x

Amendment 3

1.13x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?

$4,084 vol

Public Question 1

1.13x

Public Question 2

1.10x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$6,123 vol

Ballot Measure 2

2.89x

Ballot Measure 3

1.12x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Maryland?

$3,037 vol

Question 3

1.34x

Question 1

1.29x

Senate

Blue wave this year?

$368,992 vol

Yes

1.28x

3.96x

US Elections

Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?

$2,072 vol

Yes

1.23x

3.96x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$11,136 vol

Initiative #109

1.70x

Initiative #95

2.66x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$2,859 vol

Proposal 3

1.29x

Proposal 4

1.14x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$788 vol

Question 5

2.52x

Question 3

2.89x

US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

$1,673 vol

Legislative Salaries Amendment

2.52x

School Election Dates Amendment

1.36x

Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$340,057 vol

Yes

2.40x

1.60x

US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

$3,491 vol

Karen Bass, ≥2%

1.83x

Karen Bass, ≥4%

2.29x

Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$19,637 vol

Democratic party

1.09x

Republican party

3.52x

US Elections

Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?

$2,225 vol

Yes

1.09x

9.41x

US Elections

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$4,847 vol

Yes

1.10x

8.56x

2026 Midterms

Elections

2026 Midterms

Democrats have an 86% chance to control the House

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Likely Democratic

Lean Democratic

Toss-up

Lean Republican

Likely Republican

Safe Republican

Rating changes · Past month

Democrats have an 86% chance to control the House

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Likely Democratic

Lean Democratic

Toss-up

Lean Republican

Likely Republican

Safe Republican

Rating changes · Past month

Projected flip races

Most traded

Combos

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

More markets

Combos

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

Projected flip races

Most traded

More markets

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

Which ballot measures will pass in Florida?

Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?

Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

Which ballot measures will pass in Maryland?

Blue wave this year?

Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

Blue tsunami this year?

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)

Minnesota State House winner?

Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?