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Trending

Elections

PoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science

2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have an 85% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 87 days to Election
227DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats203
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 191
AL-07
D96%
AZ-03
D92%
AZ-04
D94%
AZ-07
D95%
CA-01
D96%
CA-02
D97%
CA-03
D94%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D97%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D90%
CA-09
D92%
CA-10
D96%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D97%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D95%
CA-16
D94%
CA-17
D98%
CA-18
D97%
CA-19
D97%
CA-21
D91%
CA-24
D97%
CA-25
D91%
CA-26
D98%
CA-27
D93%
CA-28
D90%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D95%
CA-31
D96%
CA-32
D97%
CA-33
D93%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D97%
CA-36
D93%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D94%
CA-39
D92%
CA-41
D93%
CA-42
D98%
CA-43
D97%
CA-44
D97%
CA-45
D96%
CA-47
D94%
CA-49
D97%
CA-50
D95%
CA-51
D97%
CO-01
D96%
CO-02
D96%
CO-06
D96%
CO-07
D97%
CT-01
D94%
CT-02
D96%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D96%
DE-AL
D97%
FL-10
D95%
FL-20
D96%
FL-23
D94%
FL-24
D96%
GA-02
D95%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D98%
GA-06
D92%
GA-13
D95%
HI-01
D97%
HI-02
D97%
IL-01
D90%
IL-02
D97%
IL-03
D97%
IL-04
D96%
IL-05
D97%
IL-06
D97%
IL-07
D97%
IL-08
D93%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D97%
IL-11
D93%
IL-13
D96%
IL-14
D94%
IL-17
D95%
IN-01
D91%
IN-07
D94%
KS-03
D91%
KY-03
D94%
LA-02
D99%
MA-01
D97%
MA-02
D97%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D97%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D93%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D97%
MA-09
D97%
MD-02
D95%
MD-03
D98%
MD-04
D91%
MD-05
D91%
MD-06
D92%
MD-07
D96%
MD-08
D96%
ME-01
D96%
MI-03
D90%
MI-06
D91%
MI-08
D93%
MI-11
D94%
MI-12
D98%
MI-13
D99%
MN-02
D95%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D92%
MN-05
D98%
MO-01
D99%
MS-02
D96%
NC-02
D96%
NC-04
D99%
NC-12
D95%
NH-02
D94%
NJ-01
D96%
NJ-03
D92%
NJ-05
D92%
NJ-06
D96%
NJ-08
D96%
NJ-09
D91%
NJ-10
D98%
NJ-11
D96%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D95%
NM-03
D93%
NV-01
D91%
NY-05
D97%
NY-06
D98%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D96%
NY-09
D92%
NY-10
D98%
NY-12
D99%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D99%
NY-15
D96%
NY-16
D91%
NY-18
D94%
NY-20
D95%
NY-22
D94%
NY-25
D96%
NY-26
D97%
OH-01
D95%
OH-03
D98%
OH-11
D94%
OH-13
D90%
OR-01
D90%
OR-03
D97%
OR-04
D97%
OR-06
D97%
PA-02
D99%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D94%
PA-05
D93%
PA-06
D91%
PA-12
D96%
PA-17
D91%
RI-01
D97%
RI-02
D95%
SC-06
D96%
TX-07
D95%
TX-16
D97%
TX-18
D98%
TX-20
D96%
TX-29
D95%
TX-30
D97%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D97%
UT-01
D96%
VA-03
D95%
VA-04
D97%
VA-07
D95%
VA-08
D97%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D98%
VT-AL
D99%
WA-01
D96%
WA-02
D99%
WA-06
D97%
WA-07
D97%
WA-08
D94%
WA-09
D95%
WA-10
D97%
WI-02
D95%
WI-04
D98%

Likely Democratic

Total 24
AZ-06
D80%
CA-22
D82%
CA-46
D87%
CA-48
D88%
CA-52
D79%
CO-08
D80%
CT-05
D78%
IA-01
D77%
NE-02
D85%
NH-01
D89%
NJ-07
D80%
NM-02
D87%
NV-03
D87%
NV-04
D87%
NY-03
D89%
NY-04
D85%
NY-19
D87%
OH-07
D77%
OR-05
D89%
PA-10
D80%
TX-28
D86%
TX-34
D82%
VA-02
D80%
WA-03
D88%

Lean Democratic

Total 12
AZ-01
D74%
FL-14
D62%
FL-25
D65%
IA-03
D68%
MI-07
D62%
MI-10
D67%
NY-17
D70%
OH-09
D71%
PA-07
D72%
PA-08
D64%
TX-15
D65%
WI-03
D71%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 3Rep 2
NC-01
D54%
NC-11
D55%
PA-01
R56%
TX-35
D51%
VA-01
R54%

Lean Republican

Total 16
AL-02
R74%
AZ-02
R66%
CO-03
R69%
CO-04
R67%
CO-05
R70%
FL-07
R70%
FL-09
R73%
FL-22
R64%
IA-02
R61%
KY-06
R73%
ME-02
R67%
MI-04
R66%
MT-01
R61%
TX-23
R67%
WA-05
R75%
WI-01
R73%

Likely Republican

Total 48
AK-AL
R79%
AR-02
R88%
AZ-05
R87%
AZ-08
R86%
FL-04
R84%
FL-11
R84%
FL-12
R85%
FL-13
R80%
FL-15
R87%
FL-16
R81%
FL-27
R81%
FL-28
R88%
GA-01
R88%
GA-12
R89%
IN-05
R83%
MD-01
R86%
MI-01
R87%
MN-01
R79%
MN-06
R89%
MN-08
R84%
MO-02
R81%
MO-05
R87%
NC-03
R88%
NC-05
R89%
NC-06
R87%
NC-07
R85%
NC-08
R89%
NC-09
R76%
NC-13
R86%
NE-01
R87%
NJ-02
R85%
NV-02
R83%
NY-01
R76%
NY-21
R83%
OH-08
R89%
OH-10
R87%
OH-15
R79%
OK-05
R83%
PA-16
R88%
SC-01
R76%
SC-02
R88%
TN-09
R89%
TX-09
R80%
TX-24
R88%
TX-32
R81%
VA-05
R81%
WI-06
R89%
WI-08
R87%

Safe Republican

Total 139
AL-01
R95%
AL-03
R95%
AL-04
R96%
AL-05
R91%
AL-06
R95%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R95%
AR-04
R93%
AZ-09
R91%
CA-05
R93%
CA-20
R96%
CA-23
R91%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R92%
FL-02
R93%
FL-03
R93%
FL-05
R92%
FL-06
R93%
FL-08
R91%
FL-17
R93%
FL-18
R90%
FL-19
R92%
FL-21
R90%
FL-26
R90%
GA-03
R94%
GA-07
R91%
GA-08
R92%
GA-09
R95%
GA-10
R92%
GA-11
R93%
GA-14
R95%
IA-04
R91%
ID-01
R96%
ID-02
R94%
IL-12
R95%
IL-15
R94%
IL-16
R91%
IN-02
R91%
IN-03
R96%
IN-04
R92%
IN-06
R95%
IN-08
R96%
IN-09
R93%
KS-01
R93%
KS-02
R91%
KS-04
R92%
KY-01
R94%
KY-02
R94%
KY-04
R93%
KY-05
R97%
LA-01
R96%
LA-03
R96%
LA-04
R94%
LA-05
R94%
LA-06
R92%
MI-02
R95%
MI-05
R92%
MI-09
R96%
MN-07
R96%
MO-03
R94%
MO-04
R92%
MO-06
R98%
MO-07
R98%
MO-08
R98%
MS-01
R96%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R96%
MT-02
R94%
NC-10
R90%
NC-14
R91%
ND-AL
R95%
NE-03
R98%
NJ-04
R95%
NY-02
R90%
NY-11
R93%
NY-23
R90%
NY-24
R90%
OH-02
R91%
OH-04
R94%
OH-05
R92%
OH-06
R92%
OH-12
R91%
OH-14
R93%
OK-01
R91%
OK-02
R96%
OK-03
R97%
OK-04
R96%
OR-02
R96%
PA-09
R94%
PA-11
R91%
PA-13
R95%
PA-14
R95%
PA-15
R92%
SC-03
R98%
SC-04
R93%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R92%
SD-AL
R95%
TN-01
R96%
TN-02
R96%
TN-03
R94%
TN-04
R94%
TN-05
R90%
TN-06
R95%
TN-07
R92%
TN-08
R90%
TX-01
R96%
TX-02
R91%
TX-03
R91%
TX-04
R94%
TX-05
R94%
TX-06
R94%
TX-08
R95%
TX-10
R91%
TX-11
R94%
TX-12
R91%
TX-13
R96%
TX-14
R94%
TX-17
R91%
TX-19
R95%
TX-21
R90%
TX-22
R90%
TX-25
R92%
TX-26
R92%
TX-27
R92%
TX-31
R90%
TX-36
R92%
TX-38
R90%
UT-02
R95%
UT-03
R95%
UT-04
R95%
VA-06
R91%
VA-09
R96%
WA-04
R90%
WI-05
R91%
WI-07
R91%
WV-01
R93%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R95%

Combos

House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
203-207
$2,362,481 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

226-229
234-237
$1,010,414 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
$789,654 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

7
8
$189,896 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$38,066 vol4 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12
10
$32,087 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

1
2
$8,234 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?

1
Above 2
$7,302 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?

1
2
$6,279 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

0
1
$4,884 vol4 markets
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Republican partyRepublican*
75%
25%
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
63%
37%
AL-02
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
27%
73%
FL-22
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
37%
63%
NC-01
D
Don DavisDavis*
R
Laurie BuckhoutBuckhout
54%
46%
CA-22
D
Randy VillegasVillegas
R
David ValadaoValadao*
83%
17%
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
85%
15%
VA-06
D
Beth MacyMacy
R
Ben ClineCline*
8%
92%
CA-06
D
Richard PanPan
I
Kevin KileyKiley
94%
6%
SC-06
D
Jim ClyburnClyburn*
R
John PetersonPeterson
96%
4%
MN-01
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
21%
79%
TX-07
D
Lizzie FletcherFletcher*
R
Alexander HaleHale
93%
7%
LA-06
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
3%
97%
FL-10
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
97%
3%
OR-06
D
Andrea SalinasSalinas*
R
David RussRuss
97%
3%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
35%
65%
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
19%
81%
MS-02
D
Bennie ThompsonThompson*
R
Republican partyRepublican
94%
6%
NY-21
D
Blake GendebienGendebien
R
Anthony ConstantinoConstantino
19%
81%
KY-04
D
Melissa Claire StrangeStrange
R
Ed GallreinGallrein
5%
95%
1–5 of 435
Showing 5 of 435

Projected flip races

CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
96%
4%
UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
94%
6%
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
97%
3%
CA-48
D
Marni von WilpertWilpert
R
Jim DesmondDesmond
88%
12%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
81%
19%

More markets

92 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$89,415,031 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.48x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$309,371 vol
Yes
2.14x
No
1.73x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$653,105 vol
Yes
2.98x
No
1.40x
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$1,505 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.34x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.89x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$348,413 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$12,421 vol
Yes
2.46x
No
1.50x
California

LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo

$37,674 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.52x
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.66x
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$12,869 vol
Republican party
1.04x
Democratic party
10.4x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$12,837 vol
Yes
1.93x
No
1.83x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,058 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.73x
Senate

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

$15,123 vol
Yes
4.98x
No
1.19x
Mixed Combos

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?

$21,217 vol
At least 1
4.98x
At least 3
7.85x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$586 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.65x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.01x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$10,370 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
4.51x
Virginia HJR 1
1.05x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$3,515 vol
Bo French
1.31x
Jon Rosenthal
2.89x
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$211 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.38x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.66x
Other US Elections

Maine State House winner?

$182 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.14x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.25x
Other US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$245 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.76x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.90x
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$6,634 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.12x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
5.90x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$5,509 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.22x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.96x
Other US Elections

Georgia State Senate winner?

$472 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.15x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
4.51x
Other US Elections

Florida State House winner?

$4,395 vol
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
7.85x
Other US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$7,328 vol
Democratic party
1.01x
Republican party
15.6x
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$1,455 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.67x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.01x