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US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
Senate
House
Governor
Balance of Power
Live
Kalshi Forecast
Democrats
have a
82%
chance
to control the House
Early forecasts
· 102 days to Election
224
Democrats
Dem seats
218 to win
218
to win
Republicans
Rep seats
204
212 current
Democratic seats
219 current
Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe Democratic
Total 183
AL-07
D
92%
AZ-03
D
92%
AZ-04
D
91%
AZ-07
D
95%
CA-01
D
96%
CA-02
D
95%
CA-03
D
94%
CA-04
D
100%
CA-06
D
95%
CA-07
D
100%
CA-08
D
90%
CA-09
D
92%
CA-10
D
96%
CA-11
D
100%
CA-12
D
100%
CA-13
D
92%
CA-14
D
100%
CA-15
D
95%
CA-16
D
94%
CA-17
D
98%
CA-18
D
96%
CA-19
D
96%
CA-24
D
96%
CA-25
D
91%
CA-26
D
97%
CA-27
D
93%
CA-28
D
90%
CA-29
D
100%
CA-30
D
95%
CA-31
D
96%
CA-32
D
95%
CA-33
D
93%
CA-34
D
100%
CA-35
D
97%
CA-36
D
93%
CA-37
D
100%
CA-38
D
94%
CA-39
D
92%
CA-41
D
93%
CA-42
D
97%
CA-43
D
97%
CA-44
D
97%
CA-47
D
94%
CA-49
D
94%
CA-50
D
95%
CA-51
D
97%
CO-01
D
94%
CO-02
D
96%
CO-06
D
96%
CO-07
D
97%
CT-01
D
94%
CT-02
D
96%
CT-03
D
96%
CT-04
D
96%
DE-AL
D
91%
FL-10
D
95%
FL-20
D
96%
FL-23
D
94%
FL-24
D
97%
GA-02
D
96%
GA-04
D
98%
GA-05
D
98%
GA-06
D
92%
GA-13
D
96%
HI-01
D
97%
HI-02
D
95%
IL-01
D
90%
IL-02
D
99%
IL-03
D
97%
IL-04
D
94%
IL-05
D
97%
IL-06
D
93%
IL-07
D
97%
IL-09
D
95%
IL-10
D
97%
IL-11
D
93%
IL-13
D
96%
IL-14
D
94%
IN-01
D
90%
IN-07
D
94%
KS-03
D
91%
KY-03
D
94%
LA-02
D
92%
MA-01
D
99%
MA-02
D
96%
MA-03
D
92%
MA-04
D
91%
MA-05
D
96%
MA-06
D
93%
MA-07
D
99%
MA-08
D
97%
MA-09
D
96%
MD-02
D
95%
MD-03
D
98%
MD-04
D
91%
MD-05
D
91%
MD-06
D
92%
MD-07
D
96%
MD-08
D
96%
ME-01
D
96%
MI-03
D
92%
MI-06
D
91%
MI-11
D
95%
MI-12
D
98%
MI-13
D
98%
MN-02
D
92%
MN-03
D
90%
MN-04
D
94%
MN-05
D
91%
MO-01
D
93%
MS-02
D
92%
NC-02
D
96%
NC-04
D
99%
NC-12
D
95%
NH-02
D
95%
NJ-01
D
94%
NJ-03
D
92%
NJ-05
D
93%
NJ-06
D
93%
NJ-08
D
96%
NJ-09
D
90%
NJ-10
D
98%
NJ-11
D
96%
NJ-12
D
96%
NM-01
D
95%
NM-03
D
92%
NY-04
D
90%
NY-05
D
92%
NY-06
D
98%
NY-07
D
98%
NY-08
D
96%
NY-09
D
92%
NY-10
D
98%
NY-12
D
99%
NY-13
D
98%
NY-14
D
99%
NY-15
D
96%
NY-16
D
91%
NY-18
D
94%
NY-20
D
95%
NY-22
D
94%
NY-25
D
96%
NY-26
D
97%
OH-03
D
98%
OH-11
D
94%
OH-13
D
90%
OR-01
D
90%
OR-03
D
97%
OR-04
D
97%
OR-06
D
97%
PA-02
D
99%
PA-03
D
99%
PA-04
D
94%
PA-05
D
93%
PA-06
D
91%
PA-12
D
96%
PA-17
D
91%
RI-01
D
97%
RI-02
D
95%
SC-06
D
95%
TX-07
D
95%
TX-16
D
97%
TX-18
D
98%
TX-20
D
96%
TX-29
D
95%
TX-30
D
97%
TX-33
D
99%
TX-37
D
97%
UT-01
D
92%
VA-03
D
95%
VA-07
D
95%
VA-08
D
97%
VA-10
D
94%
VA-11
D
98%
VT-AL
D
99%
WA-02
D
99%
WA-06
D
96%
WA-07
D
98%
WA-08
D
94%
WA-09
D
92%
WA-10
D
97%
WI-02
D
95%
WI-04
D
98%
Likely Democratic
Total 30
AZ-06
D
84%
CA-21
D
89%
CA-22
D
81%
CA-45
D
80%
CA-46
D
87%
CA-48
D
81%
CA-52
D
79%
CO-08
D
77%
CT-05
D
78%
IA-01
D
77%
IL-08
D
88%
IL-17
D
88%
MI-08
D
88%
NE-02
D
87%
NH-01
D
87%
NJ-07
D
79%
NM-02
D
89%
NV-01
D
89%
NV-03
D
87%
NV-04
D
87%
NY-03
D
83%
NY-19
D
87%
OH-01
D
88%
OR-05
D
85%
PA-10
D
82%
TX-28
D
84%
TX-34
D
76%
VA-02
D
79%
WA-01
D
86%
WA-03
D
84%
Lean Democratic
Total 11
AZ-01
D
68%
FL-25
D
63%
IA-03
D
69%
MI-07
D
73%
MI-10
D
60%
NY-17
D
64%
OH-09
D
66%
PA-07
D
74%
PA-08
D
65%
VA-04
D
64%
WI-03
D
66%
Toss-up
Total 7
Dem 2
Rep 5
FL-14
D
57%
IA-02
R
57%
NC-01
R
51%
PA-01
R
60%
TX-15
R
58%
TX-35
R
57%
VA-01
D
51%
Lean Republican
Total 15
AL-02
R
74%
AZ-02
R
69%
CO-03
R
73%
CO-04
R
71%
FL-07
R
67%
FL-22
R
65%
FL-27
R
75%
ME-02
R
65%
MI-04
R
69%
MT-01
R
65%
NC-11
R
67%
NY-01
R
74%
OH-07
R
63%
TX-23
R
74%
WI-01
R
69%
Likely Republican
Total 50
AK-AL
R
84%
AZ-05
R
87%
AZ-08
R
86%
CA-23
R
88%
CO-05
R
79%
FL-04
R
86%
FL-08
R
89%
FL-09
R
76%
FL-11
R
86%
FL-12
R
85%
FL-13
R
81%
FL-16
R
80%
FL-21
R
87%
FL-28
R
88%
GA-12
R
86%
IN-05
R
88%
KY-06
R
77%
MD-01
R
88%
MN-01
R
83%
MN-08
R
83%
MO-02
R
83%
MO-05
R
87%
NC-06
R
86%
NC-07
R
81%
NC-08
R
89%
NC-09
R
80%
NC-13
R
89%
NC-14
R
84%
NE-01
R
88%
NJ-02
R
83%
NV-02
R
78%
NY-02
R
87%
NY-21
R
83%
NY-24
R
89%
OH-08
R
89%
OH-10
R
88%
OH-15
R
77%
SC-01
R
76%
SC-02
R
88%
SC-04
R
89%
TN-05
R
86%
TN-08
R
88%
TN-09
R
86%
TX-09
R
81%
TX-26
R
89%
TX-32
R
82%
TX-38
R
88%
VA-05
R
78%
WA-05
R
87%
WI-08
R
85%
Safe Republican
Total 139
AL-01
R
95%
AL-03
R
95%
AL-04
R
96%
AL-05
R
91%
AL-06
R
95%
AR-01
R
97%
AR-02
R
90%
AR-03
R
95%
AR-04
R
95%
AZ-09
R
91%
CA-05
R
90%
CA-20
R
96%
CA-40
R
100%
FL-01
R
92%
FL-02
R
90%
FL-03
R
94%
FL-05
R
93%
FL-06
R
93%
FL-15
R
93%
FL-17
R
93%
FL-18
R
90%
FL-19
R
92%
FL-26
R
90%
GA-01
R
90%
GA-03
R
94%
GA-07
R
91%
GA-08
R
92%
GA-09
R
95%
GA-10
R
93%
GA-11
R
94%
GA-14
R
95%
IA-04
R
91%
ID-01
R
96%
ID-02
R
94%
IL-12
R
93%
IL-15
R
94%
IL-16
R
91%
IN-02
R
91%
IN-03
R
93%
IN-04
R
92%
IN-06
R
95%
IN-08
R
96%
IN-09
R
92%
KS-01
R
93%
KS-02
R
93%
KS-04
R
94%
KY-01
R
96%
KY-02
R
94%
KY-04
R
93%
KY-05
R
97%
LA-01
R
96%
LA-03
R
99%
LA-04
R
94%
LA-05
R
94%
LA-06
R
92%
MI-01
R
92%
MI-02
R
95%
MI-05
R
93%
MI-09
R
96%
MN-06
R
90%
MN-07
R
94%
MO-03
R
94%
MO-04
R
90%
MO-06
R
98%
MO-07
R
98%
MO-08
R
98%
MS-01
R
96%
MS-03
R
95%
MS-04
R
96%
MT-02
R
94%
NC-03
R
91%
NC-05
R
92%
NC-10
R
90%
ND-AL
R
95%
NE-03
R
98%
NJ-04
R
95%
NY-11
R
90%
NY-23
R
90%
OH-02
R
91%
OH-04
R
94%
OH-05
R
90%
OH-06
R
93%
OH-12
R
91%
OH-14
R
91%
OK-01
R
90%
OK-02
R
96%
OK-03
R
97%
OK-04
R
96%
OK-05
R
90%
OR-02
R
96%
PA-09
R
94%
PA-11
R
91%
PA-13
R
95%
PA-14
R
95%
PA-15
R
92%
PA-16
R
90%
SC-03
R
98%
SC-05
R
93%
SC-07
R
92%
SD-AL
R
95%
TN-01
R
99%
TN-02
R
95%
TN-03
R
94%
TN-04
R
94%
TN-06
R
95%
TN-07
R
92%
TX-01
R
94%
TX-02
R
91%
TX-03
R
95%
TX-04
R
94%
TX-05
R
94%
TX-06
R
94%
TX-08
R
95%
TX-10
R
90%
TX-11
R
94%
TX-12
R
91%
TX-13
R
96%
TX-14
R
97%
TX-17
R
94%
TX-19
R
95%
TX-21
R
92%
TX-22
R
90%
TX-24
R
90%
TX-25
R
92%
TX-27
R
92%
TX-31
R
93%
TX-36
R
92%
UT-02
R
91%
UT-03
R
95%
UT-04
R
95%
VA-06
R
92%
VA-09
R
96%
WA-04
R
91%
WI-05
R
91%
WI-06
R
90%
WI-07
R
93%
WV-01
R
93%
WV-02
R
96%
WY-AL
R
95%
More markets
93 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Mayor
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
$86,997,732 vol
Karen Bass
1.55
x
62
%
Nithya Raman
2.52
x
37
%
US Elections
Michigan Secretary of State winner?
$13,275 vol
Democratic party
1.14
x
87
%
Republican party
6.74
x
13
%
US Elections
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
$583,279 vol
Yes
2.73
x
34
%
No
1.46
x
66
%
Senate
Blue wave this year?
$307,446 vol
Yes
1.31
x
74
%
No
3.66
x
26
%
Senate
Blue tsunami this year?
$257,631 vol
Yes
2.40
x
38
%
No
1.57
x
62
%
US Elections
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
$2,105 vol
Nithya Raman, ≥2%
2.46
x
39
%
Nithya Raman, ≥4%
2.98
x
31
%
California
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo
$36,446 vol
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
1.50
x
64
%
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
2.81
x
29
%
US Elections
Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?
$8,443 vol
Yes
1.79
x
54
%
No
1.90
x
46
%
US Elections
Georgia Attorney General winner?
$1,526 vol
Brian Strickland
1.55
x
58
%
Tanya Miller
2.19
x
43
%
Senate
Iowa Blue Wave Combo
$14,621 vol
Yes
6.29
x
15
%
No
1.14
x
85
%
US Elections
Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?
$3,970 vol
Yes
2.46
x
39
%
No
1.46
x
61
%
US Elections
Arizona Secretary of State winner?
$1,976 vol
Adrian Fontes
1.15
x
82
%
Alexander Kolodin
6.29
x
12
%
Mixed Combos
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?
$21,072 vol
At least 1
4.98
x
19
%
At least 3
7.25
x
10
%
US Elections
Arizona Attorney General winner?
$6,705 vol
Kris Mayes
1.33
x
74
%
Warren Petersen
3.18
x
31
%
Senate
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)
$10,576 vol
Yes
1.93
x
48
%
No
1.86
x
52
%
Other US Elections
Minnesota State House winner?
$19,270 vol
Democratic party
1.25
x
72
%
Republican party
3.40
x
21
%
US Elections
Colorado Secretary of State winner?
$11,960 vol
Amanda Gonzalez
1.04
x
96
%
James Wiley
18.8
x
4
%
Other US Elections
Minnesota State Senate winner?
$5,472 vol
Democratic party
1.23
x
73
%
Republican party
3.52
x
27
%
US Elections
Wisconsin Attorney General winner?
$18,562 vol
Democratic party
1.15
x
86
%
Republican party
4.51
x
14
%
US Elections
South Dakota Attorney General winner?
$138 vol
Lance Russell
1.03
x
97
%
Democratic party
15.6
x
10
%
Other US Elections
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
$3,412 vol
Bo French
1.31
x
67
%
Jon Rosenthal
2.98
x
12
%
Other US Elections
Texas House of Representatives winner
$2,029 vol
Republican Party
1.19
x
80
%
Democratic Party
3.96
x
26
%
Other US Elections
Florida State Senate winner?
$420 vol
Republican party
1.05
x
95
%
Democratic party
9.41
x
8
%
Other US Elections
Florida State House winner?
$4,388 vol
Republican party
1.06
x
93
%
Democratic party
8.56
x
7
%
Projected flip races
To Democrat
To Republican
CA-01
D
Mike McGuire
McGuire
R
James Gallagher
Gallagher
*
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
CA-41
D
Linda Sánchez
Sánchez
R
Mitch Clemmons
Clemmons
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
UT-01
D
Ben McAdams
McAdams
R
Riley Owen
Owen
93%
7%
DEM
D 93%
REP
R 7%
NE-02
D
Denise Powell
Powell
R
Brinker Harding
Harding
82%
18%
DEM
D 82%
REP
R 18%
AZ-06
D
JoAnna Mendoza
Mendoza
R
Juan Ciscomani
Ciscomani
*
80%
20%
DEM
D 80%
REP
R 20%
Show all 21 markets
Combos
House
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Below 193
17
%
203-207
15
%
$2,209,180 vol
11 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
226-229
13
%
230-233
12
%
$872,705 vol
12 markets
House
Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Democrats, 8 to 10%
24
%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
22
%
$668,855 vol
10 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?
7
37
%
8
25
%
$176,624 vol
7 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?
1
77
%
2
18
%
$37,875 vol
4 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?
10
27
%
12
23
%
$28,946 vol
8 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?
1
80
%
2
18
%
$7,959 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?
1
80
%
Above 2
4
%
$7,215 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?
1
83
%
2
8
%
$6,278 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?
0
69
%
1
32
%
$4,388 vol
4 markets
Show all 10 markets
2026 Live Midterms Forecasts by State | Kalshi
Most traded
FL-22
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
35%
65%
DEM
D 35%
REP
R 65%
CA-22
D
Randy Villegas
Villegas
R
David Valadao
Valadao
*
81%
19%
DEM
D 81%
REP
R 19%
VA-06
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
8%
92%
DEM
D 8%
REP
R 92%
CA-06
D
Richard Pan
Pan
I
Kevin Kiley
Kiley
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
IND
I 1%
SC-06
D
Jim Clyburn
Clyburn
*
R
John Peterson
Peterson
96%
4%
DEM
D 96%
REP
R 4%
TX-15
D
Bobby Pulido
Pulido
R
Monica De La Cruz
Cruz
*
43%
57%
DEM
D 43%
REP
R 57%
MN-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
19%
81%
DEM
D 19%
REP
R 81%
TX-07
D
Lizzie Fletcher
Fletcher
*
R
Alexander Hale
Hale
93%
7%
DEM
D 93%
REP
R 7%
LA-06
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
9%
91%
DEM
D 9%
REP
R 91%
TX-28
D
Henry Cuellar
Cuellar
*
R
Tano Tijerina
Tijerina
82%
18%
DEM
D 82%
REP
R 18%
OR-06
D
Andrea Salinas
Salinas
*
R
David Russ
Russ
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
FL-10
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
MS-02
D
Bennie Thompson
Thompson
*
R
Republican party
Republican
94%
6%
DEM
D 94%
REP
R 6%
KY-04
D
Melissa Claire Strange
Strange
R
Ed Gallrein
Gallrein
6%
94%
DEM
D 6%
REP
R 94%
VA-05
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
21%
79%
DEM
D 21%
REP
R 79%
WI-06
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
12%
88%
DEM
D 12%
REP
R 88%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla Stout
Stout
R
Brandon Herrera
Herrera
*
27%
73%
DEM
D 27%
REP
R 73%
AL-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
27%
73%
DEM
D 27%
REP
R 73%
LA-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
FL-24
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
98%
2%
DEM
D 98%
REP
R 2%
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