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  1. Senate

Texas Senate winner?

Resolves by winning party
Combo
Chance
James Talarico
Democratic party
65%

James Talarico

Democratic party
65%
Ken Paxton
Republican party
35%

Ken Paxton

Republican party
35%
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: margin of victory
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Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
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Texas Senate margin of victory
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Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?
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Texas Senate election: James Talarico vote percent
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Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
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Will James Talarico outperform the polls?
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Harris County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent
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Bexar County, Texas: James Talarico vote percent

More Texas and 2026 Midterm Races

More Texas races

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Control of Congress

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More races

Nevada Governor race: Ford vs. LombardoWisconsin Governor race: Crowley vs. TiffanyArizona Governor race: Hobbs vs. BiggsMontana Senate race: Alme vs. BodnarPennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityIdaho Senate race: Risch vs. AchillesMississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith vs. ColomVermont Governor race: Scott vs. JanooMinnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. DemuthMichigan Governor race: Benson vs. James
Combo
Texas Senate winner?

James Talarico

Odds
67% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Talarico
Nov 3 ·D +2.2margin forecast
Paxton
$44,928,546 vol
Race Intel

Texas Senate Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJohn Cornyn (R)Lost primary

Texas Senate Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • James TalaricoD48.6%
    48.6%
    $68.6M
    54%
    $68.6M raised·54% small donors
  • Ken PaxtonR46.1%
    46.1%
    $19.5M
    19%
    $19.5M raised·19% small donors
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past Texas Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +13.7%2020R +5.6%