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SCOTUS & courts

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary?

Ben Ferguson

4.73x

Scott Jennings

8.56x

$13,272,490 vol

When will Trump’s next Press Secretary be announced?

Before Dec 4, 2026

1.73x

Before Dec 15, 2026

1.44x

$107,148 vol

Number of White House Press Briefings this month?

At least 2

1.62x

At least 3

3.40x

$2,937 vol

Will the White House announce a briefing room swimming pool?

Before Jan 1, 2028

5.25x

Before Jan 1, 2027

46.8x

$11,833 vol

Will Trump sit for a deposition in his BBC lawsuit?

Yes

3.66x

No

1.25x

$10,208 vol

Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?

Yes

4.31x

No

1.20x

$4,529 vol

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing this year?

Tim Pool

3.52x

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

3.96x

$98,278 vol

Will a court block the FCC’s ABC license review this year?

Yes

1.76x

No

1.79x

$6,647 vol

Will the White House move reporters out of the briefing room this year?

Yes

2.46x

No

1.42x

$2,237 vol

When will the White House announce an end to its press ban?

Before Apr 1, 2027

1.79x

Before Mar 1, 2027

3.40x

$60,147 vol

When will the UK’s social media ban take effect?

Before Apr 1, 2027

1.62x

Before Aug 1, 2027

1.25x

$2,663 vol

Will a court block paid early access to Trump’s Truth Social posts?

Before Apr 1, 2027

2.89x

Before Jan 1, 2027

5.25x

$31,706 vol

Will the Pentagon win the Stars and Stripes firing lawsuit?

Yes

1.34x

No

2.66x

$906 vol

US bans social media for children this year?

Yes

13.4x

No

1.02x

$19,001 vol

Will Fox win summary judgment against Smartmatic?

Yes

5.25x

No

1.09x

$991 vol

How long will Trump’s next Press Secretary last?

At least 180 days

1.97x

At least 100 days

1.46x

$5,136 vol

Will New Zealand enact an under-16 social media ban?

Yes

1.02x

No

2.98x

$2,768 vol

Major news story this month?

At least 5

1.73x

At least 7

3.96x

$5,637 vol

Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.03x

$43,888 vol

Will the 9th Circuit ease the Nexstar-Tegna injunction?

Yes

3.18x

No

1.23x

$0 vol

Will the FTC sue YouTube over account suspensions?

Yes

3.18x

No

1.31x

$2,724 vol

Will the FCC pull a Big Four TV station license?

Before Apr 1, 2027

6.29x

Before Jan 1, 2027

31.2x

$23,917 vol

Will the EU fine TikTok over its For You feed?

Yes

3.80x

No

1.29x

$0 vol

When will the EU enact a social media ban for children?

Before Apr 1, 2028

6.74x

Before Oct 1, 2027

11.7x

$2 vol