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Congress

All markets
Congress
International
Iran
Local
NYC
Recurring
SCOTUS & courts
Trump
Congress

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Oct 1, 2027
3.96x
Before Jul 1, 2027
4.13x
$9,821,274 vol8 markets
Congress

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?

Before April 1, 2027
2.00x
Before 2027
3.13x
$3,157,769 vol4 markets
Congress

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump’s impeachment?

Before Jan 20, 2029
1.90x
Before 2028
2.40x
$189,847 vol3 markets
Congress

Will data center power-cost standards become law?

Yes
7.25x
No
1.10x
$6,623 vol1 market
Congress

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Above 50
7.85x
Above 58
10.4x
$171,677 vol8 markets
Politics

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.04x
$3,560,144 vol1 market
Congress

When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia?

Before Mar 1, 2027
1.73x
Before Jun 1, 2027
1.48x
$6,315 vol3 markets
Congress

Will a cabinet member be impeached?

Before 2028
1.33x
Before Jan 20, 2029
1.25x
$197,932 vol3 markets
Congress

Will the SAVE America Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2027
23.4x
Before Dec 1, 2026
31.2x
$4,065,787 vol4 markets
Congress

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.79x
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.52x
$2,915 vol3 markets
Congress

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.03x
$13,682,753 vol1 market
Congress

When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.19x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.67x
$2,242 vol3 markets
Congress

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.62x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.73x
$1,998 vol3 markets
Congress

When will FISA be reauthorized again?

Before Jan 1, 2027
1.46x
Before Oct 1, 2026
46.8x
$782,247 vol2 markets
Congress

When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.24x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.55x
$1,155 vol3 markets
Congress

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Kirsten Gillibrand
6.29x
Raphael Warnock
9.41x
$54,061 vol12 markets
Congress

Who will switch or leave their party this year?

Marjorie Taylor Greene
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Marjorie Taylor Greene
4.73x
John Fetterman
John Fetterman
John Fetterman
10.4x
$166,747 vol6 markets
Trump

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

Yes
7.25x
No
1.08x
$31,497 vol1 market
Congress

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

Before Jan 1, 2027
3.40x
Before Dec 1, 2026
6.74x
$10,282 vol4 markets
Congress

When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.34x
Before Oct 1, 2026
18.8x
$13,683 vol2 markets
Congress

Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.14x
Before Oct 1, 2026
31.2x
$102,253 vol2 markets
Congress

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.76x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.73x
$3,831 vol3 markets
Congress

When will Lance Schroyer be confirmed as ICE director?

Before Jan 1, 2027
93.5x
Before Oct 1, 2026
93.5x
$3,652 vol3 markets
Congress

Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent?

Before Jan 20, 2029
2.46x
Before Jan 1, 2028
3.52x
$122,145 vol3 markets