Who will switch or leave their party this year?
Who will switch or leave their party this year?
Chance
Lisa Murkowski
24%
▲ 2
Lisa Murkowski
24%
▲ 2
John Fetterman
15%
▼ 6
John Fetterman
15%
▼ 6
Marjorie Taylor Greene
11%
▼ 2
Marjorie Taylor Greene
11%
▼ 2
3 more
Market Rules
Lisa Murkowski
If Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
If Lisa Murkowski changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican party, or is expelled from the Republican party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 3, 2025 · 5:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXMTGSWITCH
EventKXMTGSWITCH-27JAN
MarketKXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event