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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

Before Jan 21, 2029
1.90x
Before Jan 1, 2028
2.73x
$339,867 vol

Who will switch or leave their party this year?

Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens
5.90x
Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie
15.6x
$252,558 vol

Will the 2027 House rules package ban member stock trading?

Yes
4.13x
No
1.26x
$423 vol

Will Brian Poindexter be sworn into Congress in January?

Yes
1.07x
No
6.29x
$203 vol

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

Before Jan 1, 2028
4.31x
Before Aug 1, 2027
5.56x
$207,782 vol

How many ties will J.D. Vance break this year?

1
1.16x
4
15.6x
$7,923 vol

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?

Roger Williams
Roger Williams
1.20x
Ron Wyden
Ron Wyden
3.08x
$29,467 vol

Will Mike Johnson announce he is leaving the House?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.86x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.73x
$2,082 vol

Where will Haley Stevens work next?

NewsNation
NewsNation
6.29x
CBS News / The Free Press
CBS News / The Free Press
5.56x
$1,608 vol

Will John Fetterman resign from the Senate before 2028?

Yes
4.31x
No
1.19x
$211 vol

Will anyone else in Congress change parties this year?

Yes
3.96x
No
1.22x
$1,552 vol

Will Ohio’s special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15?

Yes
1.44x
No
2.73x
$4,425 vol

Will Chuck Grassley resign before Rob Sand takes office?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.06x
$275 vol

Will Congressional salaries increase?

Before Jan 1, 2030
4.51x
Before Jan 1, 2029
6.29x
$1,143 vol