Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
Chance
Before Apr 1, 2027
24%
▼ 5
Before Apr 1, 2027
24%
▼ 5
Before Aug 1, 2027
27%
▼ 1
Before Aug 1, 2027
27%
▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 2028
42%
▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 2028
42%
▼ 1
4 more
Market Rules
Before Jul 1, 2026
Resolves Yes if John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jul 1, 2026.Outcome verified from Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, and Politico.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 4, 2026 · 5:30pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXFETTERMANSWITCH
EventKXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY
MarketKXFETTERMANSWITCH-26MAY-JUL01
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