2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
Chance
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
16%
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
16%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
14%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
14%
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
8%
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
8%
More markets
Market Rules
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
If JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Office of the Presidency.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 9, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXPRESOUTCOME
EventKXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07
MarketKXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWJVANR
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
- Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
- Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
- Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
- All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
- Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.