2028 popular vote margin of victory?
2028 popular vote margin of victory?
14%
14%
2%
2%
5%
5%
Market Rules
The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
- Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns
- Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
- Paid employees of major polling organizations.
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Office of the President of the United States.
- All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Any foreign national. This is defined as an individual who is: (1) not a citizen of the United States and (2) not lawfully admitted for permanent residence (as defined in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(20)); or a foreign principal, as defined in 22 U.S.C. § 611(b). Section 611(b) defines a foreign principal to include a foreign government or political party; or a partnership, association, corporation, organization, or other combination of persons organized under the laws of a foreign country or whose principal place of business is in a foreign country.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.