2028 Electoral College margin of victory?
2028 Electoral College margin of victory?
Chance
Democratic by 91 to 130
10%
Democratic by 91 to 130
10%
Democratic by 61 to 90
13%
Democratic by 61 to 90
13%
Democratic by 31 to 60
10%
Democratic by 31 to 60
10%
11 more
Market Rules
Democratic by 211 or more
If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 15, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout1 minute after closing
SeriesECMOV
EventECMOV-28NOV07
MarketECMOV-28NOV07-DEM211T538
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