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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
$267,568 vol

How many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?

1
1.18x
2
5.56x
$201,656 vol

How many government shutdowns will there be before 2028?

At least 2
1.65x
At least 3
2.98x
$2,158 vol

How many government shutdowns this year?

2
1.60x
3
2.66x
$62,182 vol

Government shutdown next year?

Yes
1.26x
No
3.18x
$8,296 vol

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.98x
Before Dec 1, 2026
46.8x
$50,299 vol

Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.24x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$103,615 vol

When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?

Before Dec 25, 2026
1.42x
Before Jan 1, 2027
1.18x
$10,223 vol

Will the debt ceiling be abolished?

Yes
23.4x
No
--
$15,816 vol

How long will the next stopgap signed this year last?

At least 80 days
1.70x
At least 50 days
1.44x
$0 vol

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
Before Dec 1, 2026
93.5x
$15,793 vol

When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?

Yes
6.29x
No
1.07x
$14,907 vol

When will a reconciliation bill become law?

Before Jan 1, 2029
2.89x
Before Jul 1, 2028
3.80x
$1,947 vol

How many FY2027 continuing resolutions will become law?

At least 3
1.28x
At least 4
3.18x
$485 vol

When will the debt limit be increased?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.67x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
$3,291 vol