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When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Odds & Predictions 2027
Politics
·
Congress
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
Politics
·
Congress
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
Chance
Before Nov 1, 2026
20%
▼ 30
Yes
20¢
No
81¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
20%
▼ 30
Yes
20¢
No
81¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
▼ 32
Yes
20¢
No
81¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
18%
▼ 32
Yes
20¢
No
81¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
23%
▼ 27
Yes
23¢
No
80¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
23%
▼ 27
Yes
23¢
No
80¢
3 more
Market Rules
Before Aug 1, 2026
Resolves Yes if
a reconciliation bill passes the House before August 01, 2026
.
Outcome verified from
Library of Congress
.
Such bills typically begin with the phrase: “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…"
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Timeline and payout
Market open
Jun 24, 2026 · 3:00pm EDT
Market closes
After the outcome occurs
Projected payout
25 hours after closing
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Aug 1, 2026 at 10:00am EDT.
Series
KXRECNCH
Event
KXRECNCH-27
Market
KXRECNCH-27-AUG01
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
$1,660 vol
1D
1W
1M
ALL