Important Information: Please see the clarification below for how this market's Payout Criterion applies to current circumstances.
Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Market Rules
For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:
- Nicolás Maduro has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela
- Nicolás Maduro is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela
- Nicolás Maduro is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role:
- Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective
- Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026
- Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026
- Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity
- Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed
- Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself
Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.
Under the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified).
Maduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy "officially holds."
Maduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.
This clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
- Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
- Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
- Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
- All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
- Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.