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Government shutdown odds

Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be changed?

Before Jan 1, 2029

1.75x

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.00x

$3,241,351 vol

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028

3.40x

Before Oct 1, 2027

4.31x

$10,357,749 vol

Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?

On Dec 14, 2026

1.67x

On Mar 15, 2027

1.48x

$76,712 vol

Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.93x

Before Jan 1, 2027

5.25x

$15,880 vol

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Above 58

18.8x

Above 60

18.8x

$194,032 vol

Will the American Affordability and Jobs Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2027

1.73x

Before Mar 1, 2027

1.73x

$10,187 vol

When will a farm bill become law?

Before Jul 1, 2027

3.08x

Before Apr 1, 2027

4.73x

$23,744 vol

Will Congress pass a bill repealing any of Trump’s tariffs?

Yes

1.50x

No

2.19x

$137 vol

Will the Onion Futures Act be repealed?

Before 2030

3.18x

Before 2029

3.52x

$366,529 vol

Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?

Yes

93.5x

No

--

$1,289,189 vol

Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?

On Mar 13, 2027

1.52x

On Nov 19, 2027

1.14x

$30,058 vol

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Josh Hawley

31.2x

Andy Kim

18.8x

$66,053 vol

Will the federal gas tax be suspended?

Yes

46.8x

No

1.01x

$366,741 vol

Will cannabis banking insurance protections become law this year?

Yes

18.8x

No

1.04x

$6,723 vol

How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

Above 60

1.06x

Above 76

1.06x

$2,392 vol

Will the Jones Act be repealed?

Yes

10.4x

No

1.03x

$8,602 vol

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

Yes

46.8x

No

1.01x

$147,614 vol

Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year?

Yes

46.8x

No

1.01x

$67,751 vol

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Before Jan 1, 2030

1.76x

Before Jan 1, 2029

3.18x

$312 vol

Will federal capital gains taxes be cut this year?

Yes

11.7x

No

1.02x

$1,298 vol

Will the House pass a billionaire tax?

Yes

9.41x

No

1.09x

$0 vol

Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?

Yes

1.18x

No

3.96x

$234 vol