Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Odds & Predictions 2025
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
Chance
Market Rules
Before 2027
If a Congressional stock trading ban becomes law between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
A Congressional stock trading ban can still allow members of Congress to place their stocks in a blind trust or to invest in "diversified assets" (e.g. ETFs) and still resolve to Yes. Please refer to the full rules for examples.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 3, 2025 · 6:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout3 hours after closing
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59pm EST.
SeriesKXTRDBAN
EventKXTRDBAN-25DEC31
MarketKXTRDBAN-25DEC31-27
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The issue of congressional stock trading has been a subject of controversy and reform efforts. In 2012, the STOCK Act was passed, making it illegal for lawmakers to trade on inside information. However, the law did not ban stock trading outright, and many members of Congress continue to engage in the practice, often with significant financial gains. This has raised concerns about conflicts of interest and the potential for lawmakers to profit from their official positions. Recent scandals, such as the COVID-19 pandemic trading controversy involving Sen. Richard Burr, have heightened public scrutiny and calls for stricter regulations. Bipartisan efforts to reform the STOCK Act have been ongoing, with proposals including the ETHICS Act, which would ban lawmakers, their spouses, and dependent children from trading individual stocks.