Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
Chance
Before 2027
6.3%
Before 2027
6.3%
Before 2026
No
Before 2026
No
Before February
No
Before February
No
2 more
Market Rules
Before 2027
Resolves Yes if legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027.Outcome verified from Library of Congress.
The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire December 31, 2025.
Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 8, 2025 · 5:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXACAEXT
EventKXACAEXT-26JAN
MarketKXACAEXT-26JAN-27
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