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Trump administration

Congress & courts

SCOTUS & courts

Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Magdalena Andersson out as Social Democrats leader?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.65x

Before Jul 1, 2027

1.76x

$2,083 vol

Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?

Yes

1.48x

No

2.24x

$17,605 vol

Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India?

Yes

5.25x

No

1.10x

$6,247 vol

Laurent Nuñez announces departure as Interior Minister of France?

Yes

9.41x

No

1.03x

$391 vol

When will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?

Before Jul 1, 2027

3.52x

Before Jan 1, 2027

11.7x

$3,284 vol

Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

John Healey

8.56x

Miatta Fahnbulleh

18.8x

$42,481 vol

Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico?

Before Jan 1, 2030

10.4x

Before Jan 1, 2029

13.4x

$5 vol

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

Before 2028

4.98x

Before 2027

10.4x

$15,006 vol

Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics?

Before Jul 1, 2027

3.96x

Before Jan 1, 2027

31.2x

$11,564 vol

Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Before Jan 1, 2029

2.46x

Before Jul 1, 2028

3.66x

$2,077 vol

Sébastien Lecornu announces departure as Prime Minister of France?

Before May 1, 2027

2.89x

Before Mar 1, 2027

3.52x

$1 vol

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Before Jul 1, 2028

1.76x

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.24x

$26,889 vol

Israel Katz departure announced?

Yes

1.76x

No

1.79x

$10,731 vol

Rob Jetten out as Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Before Jan 1, 2028

1.86x

Before Jan 1, 2029

1.42x

$13 vol

Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

Before Jan 1, 2028

8.56x

Before Jul 1, 2027

13.4x

$2,207 vol

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil’s Supreme Court?

Before Jan 1, 2028

3.52x

Before Jan 1, 2027

10.4x

$19,228 vol

Ed Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader this year?

Yes

8.56x

No

1.04x

$4,440 vol

Danielle Smith announces departure as Alberta UCP leader?

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.89x

Before Jul 1, 2027

5.25x

$26 vol

Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?

Before Jul 1, 2029

2.09x

Before Jan 1, 2029

3.18x

$508 vol

Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?

Before Jan 1, 2028

2.24x

Before Oct 1, 2027

3.08x

$48,303 vol