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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

What caused the FAA’s nationwide ground stop?

Software or configuration error
1.50x
Maintenance or upgrade work
1.40x
$270,289 vol

Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?

Yes
1.20x
No
4.51x
$6,837 vol

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.73x
Before Oct 1, 2027
1.60x
$7,515,712 vol

When will Russian diesel be imported into the U.S.?

Before Jan 1, 2027
7.85x
Before Dec 1, 2026
11.7x
$58,982 vol

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

Above $10M
2.59x
Above $50M
3.96x
$21,309 vol

Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.90x
Before Apr 1, 2027
3.18x
$12,667 vol

Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?

Before Jan 20, 2029
3.52x
Before Jan 1, 2028
5.25x
$4,960 vol

Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?

Yes
23.4x
No
--
$61,637 vol

Will the US government lift Microsoft’s PERM suspension?

Before Jan 1, 2027
8.56x
Before Dec 1, 2026
10.4x
$105 vol

Will FERC move to break up PJM this year?

Yes
7.25x
No
1.06x
$2,012 vol

Will DOJ sue a major grocery retailer over beef prices?

Yes
9.41x
No
1.03x
$1,546 vol

Will the US ban crude oil exports?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.02x
$72,863 vol