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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028
3.40x
Before Oct 1, 2027
4.31x
$10,357,749 vol

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.02x
$200,967 vol

Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.01x
$119,218 vol

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump’s term?

XRP
XRP
10.4x
Solana
Solana
13.4x
$7,397 vol

Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin?

Before Jan 1, 2028
5.25x
Before Jan 1, 2027
23.4x
$2,669 vol

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

Yes
93.5x
No
1.01x
$46,766 vol

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.01x
$147,614 vol

Will China unban Bitcoin?

Before 2030
6.74x
Before 2029
7.85x
$1,473 vol

Will Arkansas’s crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?

Yes
3.08x
No
1.38x
$33,469 vol