Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
Chance
Before Aug 1, 2026
20%
▲ 1
Before Aug 1, 2026
20%
▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 2027
55%
▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 2027
55%
▼ 1
Before May 1, 2026
No
Before May 1, 2026
No
Market Rules
Before Aug 1, 2026
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from country, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC.
- Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
- Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
- A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
- If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 17, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXTRADEDEALCUBA
EventKXTRADEDEALCUBA-27
MarketKXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801
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