Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
Chance
Before July 2026
22%
▲ 17.4
Before July 2026
22%
▲ 17.4
Before 2027
22%
Before 2027
22%
Before 2026
No
Before 2026
No
Market Rules
Before July 2026
Resolves Yes if the United States submits a notice of withdrawal from the USMCA before Jul 1, 2026.Outcome verified from White House and The New York Times.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 11, 2026 · 8:00pm EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXUSMCA
EventKXUSMCA-26
MarketKXUSMCA-26-JUL
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.