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  1. Trump

Which USMCA outcomes will occur this year?

Chance
Formal 16-year extension
12%

Formal 16-year extension

12%
Formal USMCA amendment
11%

Formal USMCA amendment

11%
Mexican withdrawal notice
5%

Mexican withdrawal notice

5%
5 more
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Which USMCA outcomes will occur this year?

U.S.–Mexico interim agreement

Odds
96% chance
Max payout
Dec 31, 2026
$0
$13,385 vol